sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Thursday, October 1, 2009

P5+1 Talks (Iranian Nuclear Issue)

Breaking News --

US Assistant Secretary of Defense (For International Security), Alexander Vershbow anounced to Russia's Interfax News Agency that the US plans to give Iran until the end of the year (2009) to prove that it's nuclear program is peaceful before any sanctions would be imposed.

The US was talking tough and said that Iran had to come clean at the Geneva summit or face sanctions. Since the P-5 group does not share the same opinions on sanctions, that would seem to have fallen off.

The visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr to Washington would seem to have worked some kind of magic since we are giving Iran what they wanted - to play for time. What did we get in exchange (if anything)?

(P-5 is comprised of the US, Russia, China, Germany and the UK) + 1 refers to those parties plus Iran.

Obama's Honeymoon

Dear Leader may not admit it to himself because he is a self-possessed narcissist (see previous blog posts), however, things are not going well with his presidency and he's only eight months into it. The honeymoon, long past, was marked by the "stimulus package", an $800 billion hand out (more or less) of political pay-backs. A predecessor, Abraham Lincoln said that you can't fool all the people all the time.

Dear Leader based his foreign policy on false assumptions that he, unlike all who have gone before him, can use the force of his personality and his experience as a Chicago machine politician and community organizer, to sway the world to his way of thinking.

The train came off the rails this past week and the US will now meet with its allies to consider sanctions for Iran with American chickens coming home to roost.

IRAN - SANCTIONS
  • Russia: Doesn't care about Iran, but will more or less do what we want if we sell out the Ukraine, Georgia and Eastern Europe.
  • China: The leadership literally view Dear Leader as a "monkey" - their words not mine, and are FURIOUS about the tire tariffs the American Dear Leader slapped on them after they worked with us - after we lost $6 Trillion they'd invested in US mortgages. They will not be helpful with Iran.
  • United Kingdom: Their liberals are having the same problem Dear Leader is with a conservative groundswell in the UK and Europe so they'll help with Iran to the extent they can.
  • Germany: Isn't even sending a representative to the talks on the Iranian sanctions.
  • France: Jumped ship on Dear Leader after his absurd speech to the UN. They have indicated a lack of willingness to go along with sanctions because (again, their sentiments not mine) they are certain that Dear Leader will throw them under the bus at the first opportunity.
As a result, Dear Leader sold Israel down the river in the hopes of brokering sanctions (which wouldn't work anyway) to stop Iran from completing and deploying nuclear weapons... and he's not going to get any cooperation from anyone except the Russians. And the Russians will exact a heavy price for lip service. The Russians will still sell arms to Iran through third party nations such as Croatia.

AFGHANISTAN

Dear Leader swept into office with Afghanistan being branded as His War. He was going to do things differently than Mr. Bush did in Iraq. That war has gone from bad, to worse, and worse, and his Generals are wondering what the F#%k is going on in Washington. Dear Leader doesn't seem to be able to make a decision and even the Sunday Morning news shows slapped him like a little bitch last week (except MSNBC who extolled his virtues) over mishandling Afghanistan. He has no clear strategy and maintaining course and speed in Afghanistan will be disastrous. Iran, Russia, China and the Taliban view Dear Leader as weak and will exploit his weakness in Afghanistan to help make another Vietnam for the US.

Recall we did that to Russia when THEY were in Afghanistan.

US-IRAN RELATIONS

Iranian Foreign Minister Manoucher Motttaki visited Washington yesterday for frank talks with the US. They wanted to meet with the US before the Geneva meeting today. What did they ask for. I don't know but this is what I believe they suggested: They will play nice with us if we concede the following things to them:
  • Concede Iraq and withdraw troops, more or less giving it to Iran. I know that the Iraqi Shiites in power wouldn't welcome having other Shiites take their power from them, but the US under Dear Leader has betrayed everyone else. Why not them too?
  • Abandon the war in Afghanistan (a neighbor of Iran).
  • Abandon any slight lingering support we have for Israel.
  • Even though the Saudis bought Dear Leader before he took office, he'd have to more or less abandon them too and let control over the Muslim world be fought between the Suni and Shiite without US interference.
On it's face, any US agreement to those terms would be absurd, however, making a deal with Iran is Dear Leader's only way out of the mess he's in. Don't rule it out. This is the Dear Leader we're talking about.

DOMESTIC AGENDA

Dear Leader's efforts to promote his domestic agenda (changing a capitalist country into a socialist utopia) have not met with recent success.
  • Health Care - The public option is being disguised, but it's not a popular thing and the Democrat-controlled Congress is quietly jumping ship to keep from being voted from office in 2010. (town hall meetings, 9/12 march and tea parties DID send a message)
  • Cap and Trade - There is no sign of it getting off the ground.
  • ACORN - Dear Leader's ground team was exposed by two twenty-year-old kids to be a racketteer influenced and corrupt organization. Their fangs have been pulled. Dear Leader is shifting to SEIU, hoping his labor union buddies can fill the gaps, but we all know they're as corrupt and morally bankrupt as ACORN is/was.
  • Ammunition sales have not slackened. Manufacturers are running at full capacity, 24 hours a day to meet the domestic demand. The price of firearms has tripled since Dear Leader swept into office because of the domestic demand. America is an armed society. Americans are not buying ammo to go hunting game. I don't suggest that a revolution is imminent, however there is a REASON why you can't buy a box of ammunition in the store and it doesn't have to do with government rules. It has to do with demand. (make of that what you will)
  • 2016 Olympics. No big deal to me, but Dear Leader is once more staking his reputation on getting the Olympics for Chicago -- and maybe for the US. This at a time when that should be the very LAST thing on his mind. If it's awarded elsewhere, he'll be sent home with his tail between his legs (again).
I think it's fair to say the honeymoon has ended and some bleak choices are facing Dear Leader.