sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Monday, January 31, 2011

Casting Blame in Egypt

Blame Hosni Mubarak.

He wanted very much for his son, Gamal, to become the next strongman-for-life in Egypt, but nobody else in Egypt saw it that way.  There was going to be a minor civil war when Hosni Mubarak died as the army, the rich merchants (bazar) and possibly others grappled for the brass ring. Omar Suleiman, head of the Egyptian Intelligence Service is now Vice President as a hedge against things getting too far out of hand in the elitist circles, but nobody knows who will have a chair when the music stops, do they?

The demonstrators are the wild card in the current 'crisis in Egypt' and there is no question but what the Muslim Brothers follow the Rahm Emanuel doctrine that there's no such thing as a "bad crisis".  For the moment, there seem to be many factions of demonstrators and they all want something different. The Egyptian economy is very bad and unless the democratic reformers can offer something substantive, they're unlikely to prevail. The same runs true for the radical Muslims, who can only offer 70 virgins after they're dead. 

The Egyptian outcome has less to do with what Iran or Americas want than what the Egyptian people perceive to be the course that puts more food in their bellies. The Army remains intact and is not deserting the way the Iranian army did under the Shah - at least not yet. The Army will support the power elite that rules in Egypt and as cooler heads prevail, they are likely to be the broker that cuts a deal in the short term (which would leave Mubarak in charge but politically weaker).

And from one of my contacts in Egypt:


Note the picture of Col. Sanders defaced in Cairo - do these people have any limits?

8 comments:

  1. I have just seen numerous reports of a leading Iman there warning Israel to prepare for war.

    And for one to be “surprised that the Anti-Israel rhetoric has started to emanate from the Egyptian protesters only shows how far up their rears this administration and the apologists for the Radical Muslims have their heads stuck! Combine that with El Baradei, another poster boy from Iran and one has to expect the worst case scenerio.

    I would certainly agree that this has been something that has been festering in Egypt for quite sometime. However, as we have learned with the failed feel good Socialist policies being shoved down out throats here, there is always the law of unintended consequences. One feel in this case, the consequences can and will be disastrous.

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  2. Joe, I think it all comes back to the Army. Can they remain cohesive? It also depends on US Aid (that chokes in my throat). How will Egypt pay the army if there is no US$$ - since we are a major source for THAT budget item.

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  3. Good analysis of the situation in Egypt. I think you're right about the Egyptian army. The police force seems fragmented already and unable to decide which side to support or who to beat on.

    The riots couldn't have come at a more inopportune time for the US, with the Apologizer in Chief in charge of foreign affairs. Although there are no clear leaders (at least publicly) in the riots, the danger looms that such rioting will eventually find the common enemy of Israel and the US (it has turned that direction already). If Egyptian public opinion can be tuned to focus on "the enemy" instead of focusing on the civil unrest, then the US will be pulled into another military money pit.

    Never let a good crisis go to waste indeed.

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  4. They defaced Col. Sanders? I thought they were hungry!

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  5. Col. Sanders defaced? Was it after this was taken?

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  6. Opus - The hate has to run deep to deface something so finger-licking good. What target could be next? Pizza Hut???

    Euripides - They're chanting "Death to Israel" because they have to hate somebody and Israel is a convenient whipping boy. The Egyptian Army does not want to fight Israel, though, and I can't see a scenario where they would head north.

    Obama doesn't have credibility anywhere so we look like a ruptured duck far across the sea to the Egyptians.

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  7. LL: I understand what you are saying about the army. What I meant was that a clear leader may rise up in Egypt, riding on the wave of anti-Israel/anti-US sentiments and usher in a "new" wave of Islamism into Egypt. With enough years in power, such a leader just might persuade the army to invade Israel again at the worst or make the Israelis jumpy enough to demand additional money and weaponry from the US.

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