sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Monday, December 3, 2012

A Discussion of the US Hispanic Population

In the most recent US National Election, Hispanics voted for the Democratic Party over the Republican Party, sending the Republicans into a panic over their future viability. Some pundits predict that the US will be up to 43% Hispanic by 2050, but I don't see that happening.

From 2000 to 2010, America’s Hispanic population jumped by 43 percent, while our total population increased by just 9.7 percent. Or, to put it another way, from 2000 to 2010, America grew by 27.3 million people. Fifteen million of those faces​—​more than half of those new Americans​—​were Hispanic. (Pew Research)

America’s net annual immigration numbers started declining in 2006, sliding from just over 1 million in 2005 to 855,000 in 2009. Based on US Census numbers (and I believe that the data is reliable) shows that there has been a net flow of zero immigrants from Mexico as of 2012.

Mexico’s fertility rate​—​which has been heading downward on an express elevator since the 1970s​—​started nearing the replacement rate. And that the same is true of nearly every other country south of the American border. Add to that the Mexican economy grew last year at a rate roughly two times that of the tepid American economy, despite nearly a trillion dollars in largely wasted surplus spending by the Obama Administration. Mexico is creating jobs more rapidly than the US is able to as capitalism is taking hold on the other side of the US Border. Thus there is much less pressure on Mexicans to leave home for jobs in the US.

In the US, there are 1.2 private sector jobs for every 1 government job today. Though American economists don't seem to be worried by that number because of the sense that we can borrow money endlessly with trillion dollar per year deficits projected off into the next decade -- we're in trouble and many Mexicans don't need a piece of it.

While immigration from Latin America is not solely based on Mexico, that country has traditionally supplied the vast bulk of immigrants.

As Mexico comes to grips with its problem with violence by asking the drug cartels to police themselves and simply send their drugs into the US (taxed unofficially by MEXGOV), it hopes to be able to attract more American businesses to set up shop South of the Border. My sense is that this will become increasingly more attractive through the next three or four years as the American malaise deepens under the weight of the ObamaNation. This may even result in a net NEGATIVE immigration from Mexico as undocumented workers/illegal aliens find that there are better opportunities for them in that "border industrial zone" on the other side of the US Border.