sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Friday, February 21, 2014

Ukraine - More thoughts on the matter.

Are the Germans manipulating events in Ukraine? I realize that by suggesting this, I am going out on a limb, but from my perspective, their fingerprints are there to be seen. They do have a horse in the race to de-fang the Russians, and this is one way they can do it and get away with it.

Cynics will suggest that the pro-western unrest in Ukraine has been timed to coincide during the Olympics (Russia's coming out party) when the Russians would be less likely to condone aggressive suppression methods. 
The security situation worsened in Kiev as violent protests escalated, including demonstrators reportedly kidnapping policemen; the killing of up to 70 people and allegations that violent unrest has occurred in 16 cities. Both sides escalated the street confrontations.
Euronews reported all incidents of new unrest have been in cities west of the Dniepr. The east, it reported, remains calm.

The Ukrainian electoral map from the February 2010 presidential election helps put the protests in perspective. The oblasts west of the Dniepr River, except Carpathia, voted for Yulia Tymoshenko. The River divides Kiev in half. Most districts in Kiev voted for Tymoshenko. However, all the oblasts east of the Dniepr, including those in Crimea, voted overwhelmingly for Yanukovych.

When the votes were counted, Yanukovych won clearly, which means the pro-Russian Ukrainians turned out to vote in larger numbers than the pro-Western Ukrainians. The election was close, but the point is that it showed the profound polarization or bifurcation of Ukraine. That raises a question: where are the pro-Russian Ukrainians in the demonstrations? Central Kiev is on the east bank of the Dniepr River in Yanukovych territory, but his supporters have remained at home, almost certainly under orders.

Russia has many mechanisms for manipulating events in Ukraine, most of which it has not applied. For example, one pressure point is Ukraine's reliance on imports of Russian oil products to keep its vehicles running, according to the US Energy Information Administration.


If you look at the map, above, Sochi, site of the 2014 Winter Olympics, is roughly where the Washington Post logo is on the bottom right of the graphic. I suspect that as the Olympics draw to a close, so will the protests as Russia calls a time out.



5 comments:

  1. If you don't like how the election came out, what the hell - overthrow the government. Or, you could just vote better next time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Somebody is whipping this up into a frenzy and it's feeding on itself. I don't see the American hand in it...Germans on the other hand, could be pulling this off. I don't think that it took all that much to get the ball rolling so I don't know how hard the Germans or whoever had to work to start the ball rolling.

      Delete
    2. That's what's happening. However, I suspect that the discontent are being nudged.

      Delete
  2. LL, we'd like to invite you to become one of our Authors in Alexandria. This invitation has been extended to you by email as well.

    In addition to posting on anything you wish, as you desire, you may of course mirror posts you've already written from here or elsewhere to gain a different or additional audience or for any other reason that appeals to you.

    If you think you might be interested, contact me through Alexandria or by return email via this comment and I'll forward our formal invitations for you to look over and return if you decide to proceed.

    Come contribute your perspectives and opinions to the ongoing conversations there or, even better, start some new - and different - ones of your own.

    I look forward to hearing from you.

    H. M. Stuart
    Alexandria

    ReplyDelete
  3. Very interesting perspective on the subject.

    ReplyDelete

It's virtual - it's a mirage - it's life