sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Lone Star State Predictions

(Emerson College Polling Info) Donald Trump is closing in on Sen. Ted Cruz in his home state of Texas – coming within 1 percentage point in a poll released less than a week before Super Tuesday voting. The Emerson College survey finds Cruz with 29 percent support and Trump with 28 percent – well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.

Here's the breakdown:

Cruz: 29 percent
Trump: 28 percent
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 25 percent
Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 9 percent
Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson: 4 percent

Since Texas delegates are awarded proportionally to a win, it shows a tie between Cruz and Trump, which, if correct, predicts a loss for Cruz. If Cruz were to walk away with 60 or 70 percent of the vote in Texas, that would be different and could shift momentum in his favor. A Tie with Trump and a near tie with Rubio don't do much for him.

There are other polls that show Cruz leading Trump by up to 10+% in Texas, not a landslide, but those are older polls than the Emerson College Poll that has just been Released.

Other March 1 Polling: Based on the Real Clear Politics Polling, Cruz is also leading in Arkansas. With the exception of Arkansas and Texas, polling favors Trump.

15 comments:

  1. I bet The Donald ekes out a percentage or two win in The Lone Star State. He's on a roll. Like it or not.

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    1. The elites and pundits are scratching their heads, but it's what happens when America gets fed up with their bullshit.

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    2. Those same elites and pundits (one and the same, BTW, LL) will be scratching their heads as they munch their bree and sip their Chardonnay in their Hampton cottages (10,000 square foot mansions to you and me) after the election returns show The Donald won going away.

      How did this happen, they will wonder (...and do be the good fellow and pass the caviar, George) exactly how that happened? Nobody they know voted for Trump. Very puzzling. To them, that is.

      Not a surprise at all to anyone who works for a living.

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    3. Jeb! is in the Florida Keys right now, and the waiter brought him his third single malt scotch of the day as he ponders the meaning of life. They'll be moving up to the hovel at Martha's Vineyard soon to hobnob at the country club and accept condolences...too cold to go north to the mansion in Maine until June.

      The wretched masses don't appreciate Jeb! and all of his wonderful plans for them, all trashed by filthy 'new money', calling him a pussy and weak. He'll ring the waiter for a refill as he sits on the patio looking at the ocean, maybe go for a walk along the beach and put his tootsies in the warm sand. Nobody appreciates the sacrifices he made for the little people.

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  2. You can't trust polling. You can't trust people born in Canada either, they put maple syrup on everything. Now maple cured bacon, that's another thing...

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    1. Maple cured bacon is ok, but I prefer the old hickory smoked variety. Now that is not to suggest that joining the bacon's flavor to waffles with maple syrup on them in my mouth is a bad idea. It's a GREAT idea...and as I type, I feel like Pavlov's dog with my mouth watering.

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  3. I could see a lot of Texans going for Trump -- Cruz just isn't that well liked. Perhaps that's more to do with personality than policy, but I wouldn't be surprised at something like a tie, maybe a Trump win.

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    1. Many people (to include people in my extended in-law to my daughters family) like Cruz because he says, "Praise Jesus", a lot these days. I'm serious about that. It convinces them of his piety.

      I asked why he didn't say that with every speech before he was running for POTUS. They just look at me and wonder why I could be so out of touch.

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    2. It doesn't ring very true, at least to me. And here's a thought, if you're "saved" can you get unsaved? As in Billy Swaggert...

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    3. I think that Jimmy Swaggert merely said that he sinned, being caught in the car with the dead whore, or whatever those circumstances were. You are the expert in faith related things. As appointed but clearly not anointed Vicar General, I can can suggest that Matthew 7:14 applies here: Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.

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    4. A helpful text. The Vicariate is yours to have.

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  4. It amazes me on one front. Texans elected Cruz and he went to D.C. and did exactly as he promised. And lord knows he has been steadfast on the immigration problem, a huge horrible part of which involves Texas. Yet they're leaning towards Trump who espouses the exact same sentiment as Cruz. Interesting to say the least.

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    1. Cruz has been good to his word as a Senator and I think that he mixed things up in the US Senate. He and Trump are in lock step on immigration. Where Cruz lost people is by not talking about jobs.

      Trump and Sanders speak TO THE PEOPLE. Cruz utters sermons, Rubio gives his memorized talking points and they do well, but just not as well. It worked for the Senate, would usually work for a presidential run, but not this time - not yet anyway.

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  5. I'll take anyone of them over Hillary.

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    1. That's the key - - and any of them over John Kerry.

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