sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Super Tuesday Review


Evaluating my Handicapping Skills

On Monday, I predicted the outcome of the GOP primaries on Tuesday (yesterday). This is what I predicted and how the races actually turned out:

State-         Black
Prediction-Blue
Outcome-  Red

Texas -                 Cruz+11 -  Cruz +14

Arkansas -           Trump +2  Trump +6

Tennessee -         Trump +15 Trump +16

Georgia -             Trump +5   Trump +16

Virginia -             Trump +15 Trump +3

Massachusetts -  Trump +25 Trump +31

Alabama -           Trump +8   Trump +24

Alaska -              Rubio +2     Cruz +3

Vermont -           Trump +18  Trump +3

Minnesota -        Trump +10  Rubio +9

Oklahoma -        Trump +5    Cruz +6

In terms of delegate count, Trump emerged as the winner as predicted. I called some well, and missed the boat on others. It's a good thing that I don't make a living doing this or I'd share the same gulag with poor old Dick Morris (anyone remember him?). I really missed Minnesota and Oklahoma. Virginia was much closer than I thought it would be and Alabama went much harder for Trump than they thought that they would. I won't quit my day job.

Rubio finally won a state and that means that he'll be energized and based on media reports, plans to spend $25 million on negative ads against Trump in Florida, where he trails by over 20%, over the next two weeks. Rubio is owned by the moneyed special interests and it will be interesting to see what all that money actually buys him. He spent $12 million on ads for the election today, Trump spent $1.1 million. 

Educating Trump

Former foreign policy officials told Reuters that retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, who was chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency under President Barack Obama from 2012 to 2014, has been informally advising Trump on world affairs. Flynn was spotted last year at a "gala celebration" for Russian media outlet RT, sitting at the same table as Russian president Vladimir Putin.




7 comments:

  1. I think you did quite well, LL.

    Minnesota voting Rubio was expected since they're all crazy libtards up there. I. am. so. grateful. to. have. escaped. from. there!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Minnesota and Alaska were both caucus states and maybe I can take a mulligan on that?

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  2. Rubio got a state. What was it some reporter asked him (ok -- tv host pretending to be a reporter) -- "Are you in denial?"

    Interesting RT/Putin info.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rubio gave a victory speech, like a victorious Caesar - - for coming in third and winning Minnesota. Trump gave a press conference and looked presidential. Trump beats them at EVERY SINGLE TURN.

      Delete
  3. Now we are watching interviews left and right from GOP establishment tpyes such as 'The Maverick' John McCain and Christy Todd Whitman swearing that they will never support Trump.

    With GOP support like that, who needs Democrats?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The establishment has a good thing going. $19+ trillion in debt with no intention of stopping the bleed, most of them think that they can swill at the public trough until they die. It's a good life inside the beltway. There is plenty of pork to go around. Can you blame them for not wanting to be held to an accounting by a president has a history of saying, "You're fired"?

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    2. The difference between the mainstream Jeb! Republicans and the Clinton Democrats is one of vary narrow distinctions. They gorge themselves at public expense and (much as in the Hunger Games scenario) could care less how the people in "fly-over country" are having to make do.

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