sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Too Much Time on my Hands


The next Republican presidential primary votes will take place before the big primary on March 15. I feel a need to do better than I did when I attempted to predict outcomes on the March 1 contest. I'll take another dip in the pool and see if I can come closer. This is a type of trifecta.

Dr. Carson unofficially dropped out of the race and I'm trying to factor that move into this informal analysis.

(3/5) Kansas (40 delegates)     Trump +15 Cruz/Rubio

(3/5) Kentucky (45 delegates) Trump +10 Rubio/Cruz  (Kentucky is a caucus state)

(3/5) Louisiana (46 delegates) Trump +5 Cruz/Rubio

(3/5) Maine (23 delegates)       Trump +18 Rubio/Cruz

(3/6) Puerto Rico (23 delegates and 3 super delegates pledged to Cruz) Trump +25 Cruz/Rubio

(3/8) Hawaii (19 delegates)     Trump +20 Rubio/Cruz

(3/8) Idaho (32 delegates)        Trump +8 Cruz/Rubio

(3/8) Michigan (59 delegates)  Trump +12 Cruz/Kasich

(3/8) Mississippi (39 delegates) Trump +9 Cruz/Rubio

(3/12) DC (19 delegates)   Trump +12 Rubio/Cruz

(3/12 Guam (9 delegates)  Trump +25 Rubio/Cruz

For those of you who are Trump haters, I'm sorry that I don't have better news for you. I can't see Ted Cruz winning another state so long as there are 4 candidates in the field, and Rubio is going to put all of his effort into his must-win in Florida. Then again, I'm an amateur at this. I could be wrong.

Or maybe I could build stuff like this as a hobby instead?



18 comments:

  1. I'd rethink Idaho. My finger in the air around here is solidly Cruz. Five bucks says I'm right.

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    1. Boise and some of the bigger cities are likely to go for Trump. That's the basis for my prediction. If I lose I'll buy you lunch the next time that I'm in town.

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    2. I'll make sure it's someplace expensive.

      I'm thinking Boise will go Rubio. They're pretty establishment down there.

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    3. I don't know how expensive it can get in Bonner's Ferry, but I'll buy and Mr. Adrienne lunch or dinner wherever you want.

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  2. Nice bit of Wintergarden. The female consensus in LSPland is that Melania has good makeup and is very wise, and that the Trump residence in NYC is in better taste than the usual in Saudi Arabia, but only just.

    I don't know enough to predict the primaries with any accuracy, but Trump's a juggernaut. It looked like Rubio was on the verge of tears a few times last night.

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    1. Rubio is frenetic and may be a bit fragile if Trump's judgment is to be believed.

      Latest on the FBI investigation suggests they should conclude by May. I'm sure that there will be considerable media buzzzzz between now and then.

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    2. May? That's a long Good Friday... but yes, please.

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    3. That's what the media mandarins are saying. The FBI will do what the FBI does.

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  3. Will Rubio chance it? The loss of his state?
    Or will he withdraw, in order to skate?
    His politics are young,
    he can fight another day.
    But a loss at home is the arrogance of hate.

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    Replies
    1. If he can't beat Trump in Florida, the Party will run somebody against him and will find another junior Senator. In my blog tomorrow is a piece on a rumored Cruz/Rubio VP run. I think it's a rumor but this is a strange political cycle.

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  4. As depressed and mortified as I am about Trump, at least the Wintergarten genius makes me excited to be a human.

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    Replies
    1. It's not bushcraft genius but it's still pretty genius. That's what I think.

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    2. Hickok45-Wintergarten, 2016. Where's my bumper sticker?

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    3. LSP, I agree that it would be better if it also fired a ball bearing at a target while it played...maybe shot an apple off somebody's head, or an Apple i-phone out of their hand?

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  5. I'm no enthusiastic Trump supporter, but his crass, disjointed, and sinister presence appeals to my feisty revolutionary heart.

    fradgan (Nickie Goomba)

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    Replies
    1. Nickie!!!! It's wonderful to see you on-line! I hope all is well with you - revolutionary heart, indeed!

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  6. Now that's what you call a one man band.

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