sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Thoughts on the Weather

We hear strident rants on the weather and the need to modify it through human activity. From a prog perspective, it's called "man-influenced climate change". However, very small changes in the Sun's energy output can impact the weather in ways that mankind doesn't have the capacity to change.

The Sun's activity level is determined by the Sun's magnetic field. Two combined effects are responsible for the latter: The omega and the alpha effect. Exactly where and how the alpha effect originates is currently unknown. Researchers at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) are putting forward a new theory to explain what causes the alpha effect in the journal Solar Physics. Their calculations suggest that tidal forces from Venus, the Earth and Jupiter, directly influence the Sun's activity.
F. Stefani, A. Giesecke, N. Weber, T. Weier. Synchronized Helicity Oscillations: A Link Between Planetary Tides and the Solar Cycle? Solar Physics, 2016; DOI: 10.1007/s11207-016-0968-0
Many questions regarding the Sun's magnetic field are still unanswered. "As with the Earth, we are dealing with a dynamo. Through self-excitation, a magnetic field is created from virtually nothing, whereby the complex movement of the conductive plasma serves as an energy source," says the physicist Dr. Frank Stefani from HZDR. The Sun's so-called alpha-omega dynamo is subject to a regular cycle. Approximately every eleven years the polarity of the Sun's magnetic field is reversed, with solar activity peaking with the same frequency. This manifests itself in an increase in sunspots -- dark patches on the Sun's surface which originate from strongly concentrated magnetic fields.

"Interestingly, every 11.07 years, the Sun and the planets Venus, the Earth and Jupiter are aligned. We asked ourselves: Is it a coincidence that the solar cycle corresponds with the cycle of the conjunction or the opposition of the three planets?" ponders Stefani. Although this question is by no means new, up to now scientists could not identify a plausible physical mechanism for how the very weak tidal effects of Venus, the Earth and Jupiter could influence the Sun's dynamo.

Strengthening through resonance

"If you only just give a swing small pushes, it will swing higher with time," as Frank Stefani explains the principle of resonance. He and his team discovered in recent calculations that the alpha effect is prone to oscillations under certain conditions. "The impulse for this alpha-oscillation requires almost no energy. The planetary tides could act as sufficient pace setters for this." The so-called Tayler instability plays a crucial role for the resonance of the Sun's dynamo. It always arises when a strong enough current flows through a conductive liquid or a plasma. Above a certain strength, the interaction of the current with its own magnetic field generates a flow -- in the case of the colossal Sun, a turbulent one.

The solar dynamo relies on the interaction of two induction mechanisms. Largely undisputed is the omega effect, which originates in the tachocline. This is the name of a narrow band between the Sun's inner radiative zone and the outer areas in which convection takes place, where heat is transported using the movement of the hot plasma. In the tachocline, various, differentially rotating areas converge. This differential rotation generates the so-called toroidal magnetic field in the form of two "life belts" situated north and south of the solar equator.

A new recipe for the solar Dynamo

There is significant lack of clarity regarding the position and cause of the alpha effect, which uses the toroidal field to create a poloidal field -- the latter running along the Sun's lines of longitude. According to a prevalent theory, the alpha effect's place of origin is near the sunspots, on the Sun's surface. The Dresden researchers have chosen an alternative approach which links the alpha effect to the right- or left-handedness of the Tayler instability. In turn, the Tayler instability arises due to strongly developed toroidal fields in the tachocline. "That way we can essentially also locate the alpha effect in the tachocline," says Frank Stefani.

Now the HZDR scientists have discovered the first evidence for the Tayler instability also oscillating back and forth between right- and left-handedness. What is special about this is that the reversal happens with virtually no change to the flow energy. This means that very small forces are enough to initiate an oscillation in the alpha effect. "Our calculations show that planetary tidal forces act here as minute external pace setters. The oscillation in the alpha effect, which is triggered approximately every eleven years, could cause the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field and, ultimately, dictate the 22-year cycle of the solar dynamo," according to Stefani.

Thus the weather changes due to fluctuating levels of solar energy hitting the earth are far more likely due to dynamics in the larger solar system than they are by how often you BBQ or mow your lawn with a gas powered lawnmower.

Massive volcanism and coal seam fires worldwide put more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than automobiles do, though man-caused pollution clearly causes local issues, the macro situation that causes changes on the planet's climate are much larger in scope/scale and are best viewed to be "in the hands of God".

Somebody tell Barack and Hillary because they continue to spout nonsense.


32 comments:

  1. Talk about spurious correlations: "Interestingly, every 11.07 years, the Sun and the planets Venus, the Earth and Jupiter are aligned." When this occurs, it has been proven scientifically that 4.5002 out of 9 wolves howl at the moon, assuming no cloud cover locally.

    This ridiculous factoid may be interesting to folks such as Dr. Sheldon Cooper and Dr. Raj Kuthrapali of "Big Bang Theory" fame, to the rest of us, it's just inter-galactic vomit.

    Equally interesting and pertinent to the human experience is the following factoid: since the Washington Redskins moved to the DC area in 1937, 17 of 19 final home NFL football game results have correctly predicted the winner in US presidential elections. If the Redskins win their last home game of the season prior to the presidential election, the party in power retains the presidency. If they lose, the opposition party moves into the Oval Office.

    As things stand now, the Eagles travel to Landover, MD, home of the Washington Redskins on October 16th, the last home game for the Redskins prior to the Nov 8 election. The Eagles are undefeated, (3-0) and have won two games on the road, one of them against a very strong Pittsburgh Steeler team (3-1). Washington is currently 2-2, have lost on the road twice and are considered a mediocre team this year at best.

    The winner of this game shall determine the direction of this country for the next generation. I would have to give the nod to the Eagles, and assuming my hunch is correct, the Republicans gain the White House this cycle.

    How's that for science?

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    1. Man, you scienced the shit out of that, Fredd. (To paraphrase Mark Watney from Andrew Wehr's "The Martian." And, I think you're right!

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    2. Yeah, I did science the shit outta that, huh Grunt? And I saw 'The Martian,' and although I could pick it apart from a practicality stand point, I liked it a lot.

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    3. Yes, and the angle of the dangle is equivalent to the heat of the meat.

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    4. Brig can explain it to you.

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    5. She could if she wanted to, but she doubts that Fredd is truly that misinformed.
      Besides, a sun spot has changed the frequency of the hot shot, and caused it to cook off... damn climate change!

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    6. Never mind. I'll ask around.

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    7. If you have never heard that reference before, Yes, you really should ask around...

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  2. As always, pretty cool stuff, LL. Resonance is one of the most subtle and least understood concepts in cosmology and planetary science. As such, you'd think leftists, those masters of nuance, would be all over it, but they seem to prefer ideas that can make them rich and powerful, instead.

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    1. The "global warming theme" is a hoax. If temperatures go up, they are largely do to outside factors. Likewise, if they drop. There are things such as volcanism that can move temps quickly (such would be the case if the Yellowstone caldera blew). And man does have a small part to play.

      We can and should take measures to reduce pollution, but there is a vast difference between that and "changing the weather".

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    2. It's a malicious hoax all the more vile because the opposite is true. We're going into a period of global cooling driven by solar inactivity, and the efforts to combat "warming" will cause people to freeze to death for lack of cheap energy after having been impoverished by charlatans.

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    3. We can always burn coal. America has something like a 5,000 year supply. And yes, we are entering a period of cooling, which can occur when the sun is less active and when there is intergalactic dust that is between us and the Sun. You'd never hear that pass Barack's blue lips - because it's not profitable for him.

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    4. They have been saying for a while that we are overdue for a small ice age.

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  3. That was very helpful and it makes at least one thing clear. If we're going to win the War on Weather we need to fight the Sun.

    I'll memo the Pentagon.

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    1. If we launched Al Gore into the Sun in a space ship as a form of sacrifice, it wouldn't be enough. We need a racially balanced load, and Hillary can represent both women and lesbians. I think that Al Sharpton could represent negroes. Hollywood can contribute Michael Moore, who will represent fat people and Jane Fonda can represent traitors. We would need to send an Anglican -- and the world should turn to you to pick a gay priest/pedophile to represent priests, homos and pedophiles (three-in-one). That might fix the problem. At least it would be a promising first step.

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    2. But why not simplify the process. When DJT wins all the people "moving to Canada" can be re-routed via the Sun. That alone should give his campaign a needed surge of momentum.

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    3. It might tip the balance in Hollywood the other way!

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  4. What? Does this affect my sunbathing?

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    1. You're British. You are dishonoring Brits everywhere if your skin turns a shade darker than alabaster.

      However, and more to the point, I don't think that the Sun cares.

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    2. Yes. Due to decreased sunspot counts and solar intensity, you will need to increase your sunbathing by 20%, your margarita intake by 65%, and you need to do it all from increasingly tropical latitudes to enhance exposure.

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    3. Juliette also needs to start drinking iced tea in order to save the planet. It's her duty to humanity.

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    4. Or at least start sunbathing nude. It's the only way to get enough vitamin D.

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    5. You always have everyone's health in mind, Grunt. You're just that kind of guy.

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    6. Well, I've been dishonouring Brits for a long, long time since I've never been pale and interesting but more caramelised and dangerous but to go as far as drink iced tea? No. NO, Larry. I'm going with what Grunt said.

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  5. Good precis of the study. And it will be ignored by the MSM, as usual!

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  6. This certainly makes more sense than anything else I have heard regarding global warming.
    I think the earth is overdue for a shifting of the poles, too. Talk about chaos then.

    Thank you for the post. Enjoyed it, and the comments, too.

    Be safe and God bless you all.

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    1. The Earth is shifting slightly. Polaris is no longer due north.

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    2. And as I understand it, at some point, North and South will swap.

      Much to think on.

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    3. Not necessarily symmetrical when it comes to the poles shifting on Earth the way that the Sun does. History shows that it can be a 20 degree shift or a 90 degree shift, or something else. The fluid dynamics inside the Earth is something that science knows very little about.

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