sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Friday, June 2, 2017

Geopolitics and North Korea

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published an official statement warning the US to withdraw its military assets from northeast Asia. It threatened nuclear destruction if a confrontation occurred (again).
The statement said, "This evidently proves again that the US intention is to bring down the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea by force, hold a military edge in the Asia-Pacific region and, furthermore, realize its dream of world domination will never change and that the chief culprit rendering the situation of the Korean peninsula and the region extremely tense is none other than the US (sic)."
The Obama Era is over. The US takes the Nork
threats of attacking the US, Japan and South
Korea seriously. And it is reacting accordingly.
This article serves as the Kim regime’s acknowledgement of the US-Japanese exercises and the deployment of a third carrier task group to the Korea region. It is a placeholder item, pending other, stronger statements to follow.

Several open source analytical centers have concluded that the presence of three aircraft carrier task groups near the Korean Peninsula means that the US is serious about attacking North Korea if it detonates a sixth nuclear device.

When the US commits three carrier task groups to a crisis, it always means the US is serious about escalating the crisis, under some conditions. In other words, the US forces are prepared for general war. The third carrier usually overlaps in relieving the first carrier that arrived in the crisis area.
The Nimitz group, Carrier Strike Group 11, left Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton on Thursday to join the strike groups centered around the Carl Vinson and Ronald Reagan.
Historical Context and Precedence

We have experienced one reasonably recent crisis in which the US committed three carrier task groups, but no war occurred. That crisis was the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996. That was the first time the Chinese tried to use military pressure to persuade an independence-minded government in Taipei to refrain from declaring independence from China. 
In late 1995 and through spring 1996, China staged large-scale air, naval and amphibious landing exercises on islands and in sea areas opposite northern Taiwan. The Chinese even launched ballistic missiles three times towards Taiwan. Some splashed just outside the harbors of Keelung and Kaohsiung on Taiwan.  
In March 1996, the US deployed two aircraft carrier task groups and an amphibious assault ship off Taiwan. A third carrier task group arrived later in rotation. Taiwan did not declare independence. China did not attack Taiwan and no general war occurred.
Three carriers do not mean war is inevitable or unavoidable, but it does mean that general war is a risk for which the US is prepared. North Koreans repeatedly have said that they will attack at the slightest violation of their sovereignty. They mean it. Nevertheless, the North Koreans have not activated the civilian national alert system or their military alert system which are essential preparations for even a limited clash. 

The less obvious dangers in the coming week or so are from misadventure. You may recall the North Korean capture of the USS Pueblo intelligence collection ship in 1968 and their shoot down of the US EC-121 reconnaissance aircraft in 1969. The USS Pueblo is a national monument in North Korea.

A US reconnaissance aircraft that strays from its track into North Korean airspace, as occurred during the axe murder/ tree cutting incident in 1976, will be shot at by North Korean air defenses. That would create a dangerous condition for escalation. 

Another dangerous scenario would be more North Korean missile launches into the Sea of Japan while Allied naval forces are training. With so many US and Japanese ships in the area, there are many other scenarios in which small incidents and real or perceived slights can escalate quickly with little or no additional warning.

Three-Day Joint Military Exercise

A three-day US-Japanese military exercise in the Sea of Japan began 1 June, a Japanese military statement said. The exercise includes Japanese naval ships, including the helicopter carrier JS Hyuga and two US aircraft carriers, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Carl Vinson, as well as their escort ships. US and Japanese fighter aircraft are also taking part in simulated combat, according to the statement. 

US Air Force Deployment

USAF deployments of B-52, B-1B, and B-2 strategic assets to Japan, Guam and Alaska have quietly been completed. 

SSGN's 

Each US SSGN can carry up to 154 cruise missiles. (primer on US Navy Submarines). The re-deployment of US Navy SSGN's to the North Korean region is complete. They can remain on station for an extensive period of time. They and the carrier battle groups are supported by an undisclosed number of attack submarines in the area off North Korea. Based on personal experience, my guess is that with the numbers deployed, they're having difficulty not running into each other as they patrol.

Russian and Chinese Reaction

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s daily press session, spokesperson Hua again called on the parties to refrain from provocative action. All the parties are watching the Allied naval forces and gauging US intentions.

Moscow is increasing its military forces in the area of the South Kuril Islands. Russian President Putin said that Russia is seriously concerned about the increase of the military capabilities of the United States near the Korean Peninsula and will not indifferently look on as missile defense systems are deployed in Alaska and in South Korea.
"As to the increase of our military potentials in the Russian Far East and on the islands, in particular: it's not Russia's initiative, like in the other part of the world, in Europe," Putin said on 1 June. He was responding to a question from a Japanese journalist about the possibility of demilitarization of the South Kuril Islands in a meeting with the heads of international information agencies in St. Petersburg. 
Saying that NATO bases are approaching the Western borders of Russia and their military contingents are increasing, Putin said, "What can we do - just look at that spinelessly? We are reacting appropriately." 
"The same is happening in the East. Look: one U.S. aircraft carrier arrives, another one arrives, they are saying a third one is on its way there. But never mind. Aircraft carriers come and go. But elements of a missile defense system are being created, which concerns us very much, and we have been speaking about that permanently for ten years. That upsets strategic balance in the world." 
Putin accused the world media and the global community of keeping silent about this problem.
"You all keep silent about that. The world keeps silent as if nothing is happening. No one listens to us. Or they listen, but nothing is broadcast any further. And the global public lives in total unawareness of what is happening. And a very serious alarming process is happening. Elements of the missile defense system are appearing in Alaska and now in South Korea. Should we look at that spinelessly, like in the Western part of Russia as well? Of course, no! We are thinking of how to respond to these challenges. It's a challenge to us," Putin said.
All parties to the Korean confrontation are watching and reacting to the Allied force buildup. Russia is on China’s side in opposing the deployment of advanced missile defense systems in South Korea. Their concern will become even more vocal now that the US has demonstrated its anti-ballistic missile capability and edge. 

Parting Thoughts

1. The corrupt, elite, smug, lying, nasty mainstream media's scam in blaming the Russians for Hillary Clinton's lost bid for the US Presidency limits the US capacity to work with the Russians jointly to resolve issues that might otherwise be on the table for discussion. 

2. The Trump Administration is not bluffing.

3. The North Koreans don't know what is about to hit them - when the balloon goes up.

4. China can fix the North Korean problem, but if they don't, the US will.


18 comments:

  1. They've stepped in it, about hip deep. And they are dragging China and Russia into the mud with them. Mattis is NOT going to play games. Re the THAAD deployments, once 'that' nose gets under the tent, that takes a lot of both RUS and PLA 'assets' off the table.

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    1. The balance of nuclear deterrent pivots on the capability for the Russians and Chinese to deliver ballistic weapons that the US would seem to have rendered obsolete. Sorry Vlad and friends.

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  2. Wonder if our intelligence asserts, when they aren't busy leaking, are looking a the Norks selling nuclear bombs to anyone with cash? That would call for a drastic response from us.

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    1. I personally believe that the Norks already sold a nuclear weapon to Iran. I have no specific access to classified material in this regard - but I know people.

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  3. It's interesting that the Russians, like their (openly) Soviet predecessors, view a missile defense system as an act of aggression. It's like saying a shield is an act of aggression against an arrow.

    Thank you for your analysis. I have learned to look forward to reading your take on affairs foreign.

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    1. The Russians and Chinese (for example) have invested vast sums producing ballistic missile systems to deliver nuclear weapons. They have their panties in a wad because they're essentially irrelevant where the US is concerned. The US is deploying more ABM missiles and are scheduling even more.

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  4. Thanks for that. The elite, mendacious, lying, corrupt, smug media's scamming on behalf of Hillary is dangerous at best. We should be working with Russia to smash Mohammedan terror and keep the Norks in their box.

    It's the kind of cooperation that the end of the cold war was supposed to bring about.

    Odd, isn't it, that the same leftists who were vocal supporters of that "peace dividend" are doing their best to wreck what little chance remains to it. All for Hillary and enlightened progressivism. Oh, and their transnational NWO paymasters.

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    1. Hillary and Bill were primary cheerleaders of the Deep State. Which is why the Deep State put them forward to be in charge -- and created the horror of President Trump who wants to MAGA.

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  5. I wonder if the little Kim da turd has ever looked at any area outside his borders. He is talking big because he doesn't really see what is out there. And Hillary lost be she is Hillary. No one else's fault.

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    1. He grew up abroad, primarily in Switzerland and was only brought home to NorkLand when daddy croaked.

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  6. As for thought #1,
    I find it difficult to believe the lying BS of the media would impact the Russians working through the issues.
    JMHO

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    1. It doesn't limit the Russians. It limits the US in their capacity to deal with the Russians. It's all political, but politics as it pertains to Russia is a hot button issue.

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  7. What Anita said. It's a defense system. Why are they upset unless they had intentions of doing something?
    Thanks much for this update.

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    1. Technically -- we can first launch against them and then shoot down their retaliatory strike.

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  8. The Chinese and Russians view Kim as a puppet that is now a tail wagging the dog. Because they have backed Norkland in the past, they are doubling down but not whole heartedly. They would rather see the fat un gone also but don't want to lose face. They also know who the only country to use a "nuke" is, US. This gives them a bit of worry and pause. With feckless cowards like Barry in office, they worry not. With corrupt money grubbing whores like the Clintons, they worry not.
    However, they respect, albeit tacitly, Trump as they have a measure of uncertainty with him.

    Comparing the 1976 and 1968 incidences to today is unfair. Young Fat Un's dad ( monkey elvis) and grandfather were more formidable than Young Fat Un. Also, LBJ was on the way out and not about to get into a pissing match with China or Russia and Gerry Ford was a pussy


    cat.

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  9. The press has been letting a lot of us down. Ah, but I hear Megyn Kelly looked like a hooker while interviewing Putin. Now there's some real news.

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  10. It's a scary situation. I can only hope Porky the Norky realizes what a parking lot we can turn N. Korea into if he continues to act stupidly.

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