sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Warnings and Intentions

North Korea offered a clarification of its statement on August 8th, wherein they explained that Guam was a current target being considered. The clarification is that they plan to launch four Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missiles at Guam later in August as a warning to the United States of America. 
“As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the US.” 
“On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman fully warned the US against its all-round sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and moves of maximizing military threats to it.”

“But the US president at a gold (should be “golf”) links again let out a load of nonsense about ‘fire and fury,’ failing to grasp the on-going grave situation.”

“This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA. It seems that he has not yet understood the statement.”

“Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.”

“The military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the US in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.”

“The Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force of the Workers' Party of Korea and the world's strongest strike service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the U.S. imperialist bases of aggression.”

“The Strategic Force is also considering the plan for opening to public the historic enveloping fire at Guam, a practical action targeting the U.S. bases of aggression.”

“This unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists.”

“The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3 356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.”

“The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid-August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and wait for his order.”

“We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the US.”
Hwasong-12 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile
The format and content of the statement above, the description of the Hwasong rocket salvo, etc., follows the pattern of pre-launch rhetoric that we saw on their ballistic missile launches of  4 and 28 July. 

It is a pre-launch warning notices to mariners, aircraft and to Japan that North Korea intends to launch missiles over Japan into the Pacific so as to bracket Guam sometime after mid-August. That is a normal requirement of international law. It means that Guam is in a North Korean closure area.

Under Kim Jong Un, one characteristic of the ballistic missile and nuclear programs is that the North Koreans have done what they said they would do, except for the nuclear detonation in April 2017. 

Kim’s reflexive reaction to US actions, such as military exercises or the UN Security Council's recent sanctions (which they blame on the US) has been to escalate with sharp rhetoric and to take physical action – launch missiles -- without going to war.

Kim probably judges that he can launch a salvo of missiles without warheads which bracket Guam and that the US will not retaliate by striking North Korea. The North Korean diplomatic corps has hinted at "setting the mood" for talks and this may be one way that Kim Jong Un plans to prepare for talks where it makes demands of the US, which will cower in fear after the launch of 4 IRBM's at Guam.

In the mind of the corpulent boy king, Kim Jong Un (the only fat man in North Korea), firing missiles over Japan at Guam, if given fair warning, is an acceptable demonstration of capacity and is not a declaration of war. The North Koreans have not made moves to mobilize the civilian work force, which will disrupt agricultural production. Their war plans call for protecting the work force in fall out shelters before war. That sort of disruption is very expensive and will risk starvation during the winter (unless China bails them out).

US Reaction

I'm just looking at dove entrails here. I could be wrong. But...

A shoot-down of the missiles would be a fair way of USGov to explain through actions how it feels and may not trigger a war, but this sort of behavior by China's client state is exceptionally dangerous. If the missiles should hit Guam or go off course and hit Japan, there would likely be a US retaliatory strike. If the missiles are about to hit Guam and are shot down, there would likely be a US retaliatory strike. The North Koreans have stated that any retaliation for their behavior would mean war on the Korean Peninsula. For the North Koreans, that means their first use of nuclear weapons or gas weapons, which means the same thing to the US. The US would likely respond in kind and there we go.

Japanese Reaction

Japan stated that it would shoot down missiles flying over its territory aimed at Guam. There are reports of Japanese construction of bomb shelters. Japan has also expressed an interest in doubling its navy (capacity to shoot down ballistic missiles). None of this will be pleasing to China, which would like to be Japan's big brother.

Commentary

Based on historical context and precedence, the North Koreans could be deterred from this conduct by China. The Chinese did this and stopped the sixth nuclear weapons test that the Norks were planning to light off.  The Chinese did sign off on the most recent UN Security Council resolution that increased sanctions on North Korea for their missile testing (in violation of an earlier resolution).

It's an incredibly touchy situation and people are going to be throwing advice back and forth to President Trump. Ultimately the US military response to North Korea will be the prevue of the Commander-in-Chief. 

This will not be the last North Korean provocation (unless it leads to war, then it likely will be), and I stand by my prediction that there will be a war, likely a nuclear war, on the Korean Peninsula within the next 6 months.

Mainstream Media Reaction

The sly, corrupt, smug, elite, lying mainstream media blames President Trump - and his relationship with Russia. They may also blame global warming, but I don't tune in enough to know if that's the case.

19 comments:

  1. Thanks for the analysis and yes, it's all Trump's fault because he's a Russian spy.

    The corrupt, vacuous, risible media has been driven insane by spirits from the Pit.

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    1. CNN and MSNBC are rooting for the North Koreans.

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  2. We are living in "interesting" times per the old Chinese curse. Do the Chinese understand they, too, are living in interesting times?

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    1. They created the problem, and now they don't want to fix it no matter how interesting it is.

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  3. It is funny how a little rolly-polly fat man who lords over half a country surrounded by the largest military's in the world can threaten and yammer so much. And I wonder if any of his generals have ever had wartime experience. Why not start feeding them (the generals) the idea that if they change the regime and take out the fat man, we, along with China, would help them build up their country and make it a livable place. Yeah, I know, a pipe dream.

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    1. There is no reason that NorK could not become another version of South Korea if Fat-Un "disappeared. Barring a stabilization by the ChiComs or a new fatty.

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    2. It has served China's purposes until now to have the Norks as their little yappy dog on their leash. Now that the little dog is growing fangs, I think China may truly be in a quandary as to just what to do about it.

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    3. John, I think that all of the generals who had wartime experience during the "first" Korean War are dead or senile. Anyway, that style of war fighting has been obsolete for many decades.

      Keith, One Korea is a dream of South Korea. China doesn't like the idea because ROK Korea is an industrial powerhouse and its people are industrious even though it's small. And they don't want a nation allied with the USA on their doorstep. If you combined both Koreas, they are unlikely to feel beholden to China.

      RHT447 - The Chinese have a tiger by the tail. They are holding on and want to let go but don't dare. And because the world links them to the North Koreans, it's embarrassing to them that they can't control the creature that they made.

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  4. What would be the best (actually doable) course of actions for the US? Why hasn't someone taken out the creepy little fat guy?
    We could just invite him to testify against Bill & Hill...

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    1. Yes, if he was testifying against Bill and Hill, he'd be taken out there in his fortress without the need for a war.

      Absent that we can take their abuse and missile launches.
      or
      War

      In this case, it's in for a penny, in for a pound. They want a war. They are not trying to avoid one. They don't want to be pounded into radioactive fall-out, and they think that they can humiliate - and possibly destroy the entire USA.

      But the war won't last all that long and the South Koreans can do the mopping up.

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  5. Meanwhile, back in the ever volatile Middle East....

    I would have bet that The Next War would come about between the Iranians and the Israelis.

    And it looks like I would have lost that bet.....

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    1. The next war may be between China and India. That border confrontation is something that looks very tense. It may go down before the North Koreans are turned into ash statues on the sides of houses.

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  6. So how do the Norks figure they can take out the United States with their three and a half nukes? Must be they expect us to react supinely to a nuclear strike.

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    1. The thought (or so I'm told) there at the Nork Supreme Command is that if they use an atomic bomb that the US will surrender unconditionally. Or that if they shoot intermediate range ballistic missiles at Guam (a US Territory) that we will just let it go, because that's what the US always does (did). We let them get away with it.

      Things may have gone too far for that and they're not dealing with the timid and lazy Barack.

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  7. There will be a unified Korea by next year, just parts of it won't be inhabitable for a thousand years... Just sayin'

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    1. I'm reminded of the Sinatra song about the ant trying to move a rubber tree plant - the North Koreans have high hopes - high apple pie in the sky hopes. What would a US surrender mean to North Korea? Would Fat Kim move into the White House as national dictator? The thinking is big but they're going to end up as fall-out and the NFO scenario will be played out.

      The North Koreans will end up as a historical footnote and will serve as an example to Iran of what befalls rogue states with big nuclear weapons dreams.

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  8. I was made to understand that China took the oil embargo out of the UN Security Resolution before they signed it. Why, I don't understand since I thought they had already cut off NK oil.

    They have said if NK strikes first, they won't stop the U.S. What will they consider the missiles bracketing Guam, assuming they don't actually hit Guam?

    Personally, I am rooting for the Japanese to take them out in the air.

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    1. If North Korea fires four missiles at Guam, the US will retaliate and the Chinese will bow out. EVEN if the Norks plan on near misses, it's game over for the DPRK.

      I was on the phone with friends in China tonight who believe that chubby boy king will be taken out by the Chinese within the week - if they can pull it off. All of this BS is getting out of control and China becomes a loser in the equation and they don't want that.

      In baseball terms, it's time to relieve the pitcher there in North Korea.

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