sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Can President Trump Trust China?

The Chinese would ask how they could possibly trust the USA when our policies and politics change so radically over a decade. To wit:
  • Barack Obama Apology Tour - 2008  Barack traveled to China (and everywhere else) and apologized for the United States, bowing, scraping and behaved generally as a pot licking mutt. China saw immediate weakness and has screwed us three ways from Sunday as a result. They built up their military and expanded into Africa, Pakistan, Thailand and took "ownership" of the South China Sea and a portion of the East China Sea.
  • Barack Obama Pivot Toward Asia - 2012 A half-hearted effort to pretend to care what China was up to, sending the strongest possible signal that the US didn't care what China did. (more here)
  • Hillary Clinton - prematurely anointed US President - 2016 The US through the corrupt, elite, media sent the message that the Chinese interpreted as being that the superbly buy-able Clinton (a lesbian with bad hygiene) was for sale (at a higher price than before) and was taking discounted donations in 2016 to the Clinton Foundation ("a force for good"... of Hillary and Bill) but advised China and others that the price would go up in 2017.
  • Donald J. Trump Elected - 2016 It's these sorts of surprises that the Chinese can't account for. President Trump wasn't supposed to win, but he did and Hillary had to return $7 million in fireworks (purchased from a Chinese company). I'm sure that the Chinese fireworks company demanded a re-stocking fee.
At somewhere around 1.4 billion people, China is the most populous nation on Earth (with India trying to catch up). Every Chinese person believes that they are smarter than every other person on Earth (because they are celestials - and that's simply how it works).

A number of pundits are joyfully and enthusiastically predicting China's downfall in 2017 as the Chinese national debt is rising at an unsustainable rate.
The lowest platonic classes, the laboring classes, are unbalanced in the sense that greed and foolishness rule these people, therefore they can, and should, be used as lowly paid slaves to the betterment of the whole. The savings they accumulate are controlled and directed as the mandarins see fit. By plowing enormous amounts of savings back into the system, the economy, as measured by GDP, “grows” and the mandarins can point to all wonders they are able to create. 
There is a great downside to this system though. The hapless laboring classes cannot afford to live the life their output from production would suggest they should. Since the mandarins set both wages and return on savings, a mismatch is created between domestic purchasing power and domestic output.
An old fashioned view of China
China has been able to manipulate the value of its currency exchange rates (note their financial crisis of 2008-9) so far, but even with that, there are deflation issues as the economy begins to stall. The enormous amount of waste embedded in the system as a result of years of inflationary policies has left the Chinese economy riddled with bad debt and probably trillions in non-performing loans. Based on my personal view of things it will be MANY trillions in non-performing loans that will eventually need to be written off no matter how optimistic the bookkeepers want to be. The Chinese shadow system of accounting works inside the country but when exposed to (prying) foreign eyes, it doesn't do as well.

China will have do face the decision of whether to devaluate its currency or to face a domestic financial crisis that would have serious (but unlikely dire) political consequences.

The question for the Trump Administration is whether the Chinese will double down on their current foreign expansion into Africa, Pakistan, Thailand in an attempt to use those foreign markets to try and "fix" the internal system that is in danger. Would Chinese leaders resort to an invasion of Taiwan to take the national focus off the damage to they are doing to their national economy?  Actions like that one are not exactly novel on the world stage, are they?

Invading someplace like Pakistan is less likely because - who would want it? They own the part that then want right now and the Paks are at their service. 

Invading Thailand wouldn't be productive either because the Chaozhou Chinese have run Thailand since 1957, and I'm not talking conspiracy theory. (Ethnic Chazhou with Thai names)
Chaozhou (Chinese: 潮州), alternatively transliterated as Chiuchow, Chaochow, or Teochew, is a city in the eastern Guangdong province of the China. ... Along with Shantou and Jieyang, Chaozhou is part of the Chaoshan region.
Invading Japan would invite a US Navy response that would likely include Australia and would set the East ablaze.

Conclusion: The Chinese don't trust us and we should not trust them, but we can do business with them. That's called "thinking like a chinaman".

Tolerance


Nobody is quite as noble or tolerant as a progressive person. Those of us who have enjoyed their company for short bursts of time tell the tales of the "big tent" where all are welcomed. 

Above all, they hate God and guns - and the people who hold both dear to their hearts.

TODAY there is one thing that they hate worse than God or guns and that's President Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America.

There are also some RINOs who still are keeping up the refrain about how bad President Trump will be. Any who make common cause with the progs are just as bad as (or possibly worse than) progs themselves.

One need look no further than the editorial columns of the New York Times or the Washington Post to see the unabashed anger that voters didn't pay attention to them and voted for Trump - and the down-ticket Republicans who now control Congress, 33 State Governors, etc.

Meanwhile, President Donald J. Trump is working to make America great again. Ford announced that it's canceling its $1.6 billion small car plant in Mexico and will be expanding a plant in Detroit to build those cars. The Democrat Party is furious because the United Auto Workers Union is praising Trump, who hasn't been sworn in yet. They're promising to hold up his cabinet nominations and fight him every step of the way. This might backfire.

The Democrat Machine has drawn its power from the corrupt, fetid, inner cities which are rife with despair, poverty and social issues that run the table from one end to the other. Much of that multi-generational pain that the Democrats feed on has its roots in poverty. Jobs, particularly good paying manufacturing jobs, can turn that around and it will deprive the Dems of 'their base'.

There is considerable chatter in Democrat Party strategic circles about 'voter appropriation', where the voters that Democrats took for granted have shifted to the Republican Party because of Donald Trump's message. It could expand into a cancer that eats away at the prized voting base in the same way that it crashed through Hillary's "Blue Wall". Is it racist for Trump to try to make Detroit great again? 

While we're Talking Tolerance

It's interesting to see which women progressives favor and which ones they're intolerant of. Any man who becomes a woman is tolerated and celebrated. The supremely corrupt Hillary Clinton is embraced. Michelle Obama (who may indeed be a woman) is held out as a fashion icon...but they don't like Melania Trump.

The gene pool from which liberals chose their mates is very suspect.