sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Will We Grow Out of It?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is teetering on 25,000; economic growth is pushing along at +3%; businesses and individuals are paying less tax; government regulations have been eliminated to the extent prudent and the US is oil/energy independent and has begun to export. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), said to float on a vast sea of oil is being explored and drilling leases will be sold there. The taxpayers will win with ANWR and leases on other government land (forbidden during the years of Obamanation) both in profit from drilling leases, in well paid drilling jobs and everything that supports drilling crews and infrastructure, in export taxes paid by oil companies and in profits that will flow back to the US from foreign sales.

And we have a $20 trillion deficit, half of which was accrued under Obama's watch (not all his fault, but a lot of it was). If you've followed this blog long enough, I've said for a long time that the only way that I could see the US dredging itself out of the financial hole it sank into was through oil. The US/Canada have the world's largest proven oil reserves - larger than the Saudis. Some of that oil and gas was difficult to access in the past but technology has provided the solution and we're able to profitably extract it now.
California, ever the opportunistic state, has slapped a $1.00 per gallon excise tax on the retail sale of gasoline to further social justice, income redistribution, and coddling non-US citizens who are encouraged to vote for the Democrat of their choice in elections. Some people claim that it's insanity and many people are fleeing the People's Republik for those and other related reasons.
Some have had enough of California and are seeking
sanity and sanctuary elsewhere.
The sly, corrupt, lying, elite media don't focus on the economic improvements that America saw over the last year, but they are considerable and the booming stock market affirms it to the shame of the RINOs and Democrats, whose interest is in personal profit, corruption and power - not in providing beneficial leadership for America.

Still remains the question of whether or not America will grow its way out of the $20 trillion debt? At this point the answer is unknowable. However, robbing those who work and applying principles of income redistribution to those who do not will not solve any part of the problem (except to help the corrupt remain in power).

31 comments:

  1. Wow. High taxes in California. Can't believe people there stand for that.
    Hopefully we can sustain the growth.

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    1. I have many horror stories about California taxation well and apart from the 11% sales tax in some counties, the 11% State income tax rate which I currently pay at my income level. There are the excise taxes on everything that goes toward 'social justice', etc. My solution to this and other California issues is to vote with my feet and leave. I'm only one of many people to flee.

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    2. And you have a considerable amount of company fleeing the state with you....

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    3. I was at AZ Motor Vehicle Dept last month and the lady said that fully half of their registrations were Californians swapping their slave state plates for free state plates.

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  2. The only way that debt can be paid down is by cutting spending. I'm not a financial genius, but I do know the first principle of running a business: you have so much money coming in and so much money going out and what's coming in better be more than what's going out. I have never bought into the lie (IMO) that debt can be good.

    But then - I'm a simple soul who just amused herself by watching the coffee pot click on automatically.

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    1. The economy booming increases the treasury's take, as will oil sales. The debt ratio decreases. Trump's national reforms pare back spending as the size of government is reduced. However with military commitments being a reality and rebuilding the depletions of the Obama Regime, I don't know that there will be much deficit reduction in the next three years. If President Trump is re-elected and if he has the legislature, a second term could see some movement to cut back the $20T...maybe.

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  3. Uchuck the TuchuckJanuary 4, 2018 at 6:04 AM

    I find myself more pessimistic. P.J. O'Rourke said it best: giving a politician money is like giving a 16-year-old a bottle of whisky and a set of car keys. They will not use extra revenues to pay down debt. They will use it to buy more votes.

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    1. During the Clinton era, tagging onto the Reagan success (and with a Republican legislature), the deficit did see some reduction. However things do tend to devolve over time and it's tough to fight entropy. In a political sense, that means more spending and vote-buying...until the whole thing falls apart.

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    2. It's tough to fight entropy because entropy always wins in the end. Always. The trick is to put it off as long as possible. Government spending needs to be brought back to Earth. Yes. we need military spending for everyone's safety, and, yes, we need some common sense help with getting control of the out of control social spending. That will help cutting the deficit.

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  4. Under President Trump the deficit may stabilize or come down. We can be assured under Shillary, it would soar.

    I wouldn't bet the farm on oil, especially shale and ANWR. Both are high risk/high expense and much of the growth is from investor money and not revenue. Sort of a reverse deficit. If investor money dries up, is the industry sustainable?
    Must be folks who think so judging by the number of $80k pickups I see daily.

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    1. I think that it's sustainable. Ok, I HOPE that it is.

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  5. Excellent points, and if the middle east goes BOOM, all of a sudden, our oil becomes VERY worthwhile...

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    1. It always puzzles me that the libtards are so against drilling and recovery of oil. They always say that it does us no good now, as it will take "10 years" to get those resources online and producing.

      It reminds me of an old saying about a journey of 1000 miles beginning with a single step....

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    2. Too true (both of you). Oil exploration, leasing, drilling, transportation and refining requires significant infrastructure. It can't be built instantly and the Democrats tend to think in terms of "what can I steal today".

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  6. It is interesting to experience that DJI increased 26% since the inauguration. A lot of other decisions with "structural" impact will enhance and strengthen the US in the years to come. That is substantially good news. In the same time it is also very clear how liberals and globalists define their priorities and what they emphasize when criticizing. They simply do not care about what creates value and strengthens competitiveness. Nothing of what they suggest seems to create job with value, only increased costs and more bureaucracy.

    They do not seem interested to support when women in Iran want to be "liberated" from the regime based on Islam and their medieval rules. Instead the liberals in the US starts to wear hijab in the US to support conservative Islam. I guess the only remedy that will solve the problem will be to change the educational system and introduce natural sciences and train students in what brings value to a society. What is free for some must be financed by others and it is not given that liberals and democrats are the best ones to create the value that can afford to finance the bureaucracy they like to generate. They are not likely the best people to foster efficiency in the bureaucracy they strive to build either.

    Hopefully the economy will be strengthened in the years to come so people in general experience the difference.

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    1. The only women that liberals wish to 'free' are non-Muslim women. They are never bothered by female circumcision or other brutal practices. So they are consistent.

      Yes, the 26% increase in wealth created by the rise in the US stock market is completely ignored by the sly, smug, condescending, lying mainstream media because it doesn't fit their narrative. It's difficult to see how people could be so incredibly myopic and STUPID. But they are.

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  7. "...(forbidden during the years of Obamanation..."

    You forgot a word, LL. There should be the word 'the' between the words 'of' and 'Obmanation'.

    Thanks for the post.
    Paul L. Quandt

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  8. Video - Tax Cuts For Dummies

    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2018/01/video-tax-cuts-for-dummies.html

    ps. would you consider adding CC to your blogroll? Thanks!!

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  9. I cannot get my simple head around 20 trillion in debt and how on esrth America can pay that back.

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    1. 2/3 of the national budget is entitlements. That's the 800 pound gorilla (or guerrilla) in the corner of the room that nobody wants to talk about. Reducing Social Security payments by raising the retirement age to 70 would be a step in that direction. The other issue is government funded medical care and that horse has been flogged to death in the US.

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  10. In the '90s, William Hauser put forth his "Hauser's Law" showing that no matter what the tax rate in the US has been, the tax revenues are essentially constant at 19.5% of GDP.

    The important point is that tax rates and revenues are independent of each other. That means there's no real reason to believe the CBO's analysis that the deficit goes up because of Trump's tax cuts. The tax rate can be above 50% and the GDP growth will go negative or the the rate can be single digits and GDP grow wildly. Clearly Trump's team is betting that sustained growth can overcome some of the debt problem.

    Also clearly, the only way to really get out of this mess is to (1) not just reduce spending to balance the budget but reduce it until we run a surplus, and (2) repeat for the next 20 or 30 years. Maybe more.

    Except that it's also true that a government can have some level of debt, as long as it's manageable, just like individuals might incur some debt that's reasonable. The only issue is you can never trust weasel politicians to be reasonable.

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    1. "you can never trust weasel politicians to be reasonable"

      No, you can't. Not so long as they can use money taken from one group to buy votes from another group...in the name of 'social justice'.

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  11. It seems that any state that touches the Pacific is run by liberal idiots.

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    1. It doesn't just seem... The insanity spreads like a noxious cloud of poison fog from the ocean.

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  12. Larry...to change the subject for a moment. I see they found a stash of 80 plus pounds of C-4 and 9 claymores buried near Pine. Ya' wouldn't happen to be missin' something, would ya'??

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    1. That they found somebody's stash is disconcerting. The tradecraft is slipping. Likely ratted out by a 'friend'. If it was mine it would have been booby trapped and you would have heard it in Show Low...

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  13. Arizona has to be looking really good about now.

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    1. It does. I just picked out colors for the exterior of the shack and am headed in that direction to finish with the cabinet selection, etc. The good weather this winter put us ahead of schedule, though the first snow of the season is expected next Wednesday. But never fear, it should clear and be 60 the next day.

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  14. Drill, drill, drill. You've been saying it for years, LL, and I have to agree.

    Will it decrease the deficit? Who knows, perhaps it'll help fund the wall and the cost of prosecuting Hillary, too.

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    1. Absent some really significant discovery like cold fusion (which may or may not work), oil is our reality for the next 100+ years. Those that don't have it are slaves to those who do.

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    2. Right. And why be slaves to Moslems? That's as absurd as it's blasphemous.

      Cold Fusion? Yes please. We can sell its free (to us) power to the Mohammedans for a lot of money and demand Hagia Sophia back. They have no business controlling the Bosphorus.

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