sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Israel and Iran

Israel

Expecting an Iranian attack and/or rehearsing civil defense. Warning that an Iranian attack might be imminent, the Israeli government called up reservists in air defense and intelligence specialties, Haaretz reported on 8 May. 

Haaretz also reported that the Israel Defense Forces have ordered civil defense shelters in the Golan Heights opened to citizens. The newspaper opined that Israeli leaders believe that Iran is preparing to retaliate for an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian air base in Syria. 

On 8 May, Israeli aircraft attacked targets in Syria within one hour of the US announcement that it withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran. Nine people, possibly Iranians, died in the attack. That explains the Israeli leadership’s latest concern about possible Iranian retaliation, in addition to the destruction Israeli air attacks have accomplished against Iranian targets in Syria during the past four months.

Reserve callups are genuine war preparations because of the costs to the civil economy of putting civilian specialists in uniform. The Haaretz article described a limited call-up that signifies the threat is from the air.

The localized civil defense measures indicate that Israeli intelligence expects Iranian targets would be on the Golan Heights. 

Reserve recalls and civil defense measures reinforce the message that the threat is genuine and requires Israel to pay serious costs to increase readiness.

Iran

Iran will stay in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). On 8 May, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran will stay in the nuclear deal with other signatories. He stressed that that Iran always complies with its commitments. 

Rouhani made the remarks shortly after the US President announced his decision to withdraw from the deal. 

The other main signatories to the JCPOA have declared that they will remain in the arrangement. Their position provides economic and political incentives for Iran to remain in it at least until the benefits of adherence can be determined.

11 comments:

  1. Any truth to the report that Iran never signed that agreement?
    Thank you for the update, LL.

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    Replies
    1. It's an agreement "between gentlemen" Not an agreement between nations. And we gave them $150 billion to seal the deal.

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    2. And we unfroze their assets, too, didn't we?

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    3. I believe that is correct, drjim.

      What a sad freaking deal. And Kerry crying to top it off.
      Sad, sad, day.

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    4. The ObamaNation ended. As Barack said, "shut up, I won" - except that Hillary didn't succeed him and all of those executive orders that defined his presidency are being over-written leaving him with the legacy of being half black with little more. He can revel in that.

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  2. Damage done, hemorrhaging stopped. Law of unintended consequences to follow.

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    1. It puts Iran in a far more difficult place. The whole self-inspection farce may have to be replaced with genuine inspection if they want a path to being other than the ONLY pariah state on the planet remaining now that the Norks are calming down.

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  3. Of course the others will stay with it, after all we paid for it, not them!

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    1. It was a meaningless agreement that allowed Iran to do what it wanted. President Trump is trying to work out an arrangement to keep them from becoming a nuke producing state like North Korea. Life is choices. We shall see how Iran wants to play it.

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  4. Some say the days of the Mullahs are about at an end. But what do I know, I just catch fish (lately).

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    Replies
    1. You catch a LOT of fish - you beat the drum.

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It's virtual - it's a mirage - it's life