sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Observations and Implications

The Summit Meeting (in Singapore)

At their first handshake, Kim told President Trump, “It was not easy to get here. For us, the past has been holding us back and old practices and prejudices have been covering our eyes and ears, but we have been able to overcome everything to arrive here today."

At the end of about four hours of meetings, President Trump and the North Korean Chairman signed a document on broad principles of agreement. It opened with an affirmation that President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un “held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.” 
“President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new US-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
“Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and pf the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018, Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.”
“Having acknowledged that the U.S.-DPRK summit – the first in history – was an epochal event of great significance in overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening up of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously. The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK officials, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.-DPRK summit.”
The primary significance of the summit is that it occurred. Both leaders wanted to be the first. In meeting the US President, Kim has surpassed the achievements of Kim Il-sung and Kim Chong-il. Both men have established a place in history.

The emergence of the document above implies preparations and exchanges about appropriate for a half-day summit. Some of the language is lifted from public statements by Kim or from President Trump. Other language is from the Panmunjom Declaration, which is cited. 

Style

Many commentators from the corrupt, smug, sly, lying elite media in the US have criticized the summit style. There are at least two summit styles. 

Since World War II, the dominant style has been for the summit meeting to be the climax of weeks of work. This opens the negotiations to input from all sort of experts.

The Singapore summit conforms to an older style, that of strong rulers – kings/kaisers/emperors/despots -- of the past. Great kings had the option to establish the principles or the framework for an agreement and then set their bureaucracies in motion to execute the details. 

In the older style, the experts have only limited contributions to make to the summit preparations. They still have important contributions, but to the implementation phase of the agreement. Both styles work.

Security and pressure. One of the advantages of the great king style is there are no premature leaks. Plus, there is no time pressure to achieve results before the leaders meet. 

Severability. Another advantage is that differences over the details do not necessarily rupture the overall agreement.

Flexibility. Another advantage is that the great kings have the flexibility to intervene to break deadlocks. The important point is that there is no single path to a useful agreement. 

Iran-North Korea

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi urged North Korea to enter the planned talks with the United States with "full vigilance", ISNA news agency reported on 11 June.
"Given the history and the history of the behavior we know from the United States, especially those of Mr. Trump, who during his term of office has committed obstructions, withdrawal from agreements, and violations of obligations, especially with regards to the JCPOA (the Iranian nuclear deal), we do not hold an optimistic view on this issue, and we believe that the Korean government should deal with this with full vigilance, since one cannot judge the nature of the American leadership with optimism," Qassemi said during his weekly press briefing in Tehran on 11 June.
"Iran's position is clear..., we are interested in peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula, as well as in other parts of the world, and we will welcome every step in this process, as well as the economic development and prosperity of that region," Qassemi said when asked about Iran's stance on the upcoming US-North Korean talks in Singapore.
The Iranian statement contains no surprises. However, Iran is watching closely, because THEY are interested in an agreement themselves. As Iran ramps up it's capacity to build nuclear weapons, Israel acquires US F-35 stealth strike aircraft, and the Saudis have committed to buy/build their own nuclear weapons in an effort to remain parity with their hereditary enemies. With the North Koreans crafting a deal that may be enduring with President Trump, there is a light with Iran that was not there with the bumbling, craven ObamaNation. Maybe there is a way for them that doesn't end with the Persian Empire turned into a sea of radioactive glass.

I know that there are blog readers who won't agree with me that Iran sees an opportunity for a genuine deal, but (with respect) you're wrong. How to craft such a deal on the repudiation on the horrible situation with Barack Obama's 'sell out' that the whole world now sees clearly, is a task for them.

15 comments:

  1. Interesting you mention Iran. Never occurred to me their interest. The NORKs allegedly have earned hard currency from selling their nuclear and missile technology to other countries. Is stopping that a major goal for President Trump?

    The West seems focused on Iran's actions in the Persian Gulf and threats to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Seldom mentioned are the two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and India to their East.

    Is Iran the end game focus and the NORKs a step along the way?

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    1. Iran has relied on North Korea for nuclear weapons and missile technology. That's coming to an abrupt halt, and my wicked mind suggests that the Norks will be providing the US with details of what they have done with Iran.

      Iran's primary focus is on Saudi Arabia with Israel as a close second.

      The Trump Administration views North Korea and Iran as separate issues, but there is linkage as discussed.

      Iran underestimated President Trump. They may have been watching too much CNN. I don't think that they do now. They want a deal. The White House isn't taking their calls (yet).

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  2. As always, thank you for your report and analysis. Much appreciated.

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    1. I'm happy that you find this useful, LindaG

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  3. As someone has pointed out, the problem with the Iran deal is that Obama and his people wanted a deal far more than Iran did. The Iranians saw this and played them for everything they could get, which was quite a lot.

    When going into a negotiation, you can't appear to want the deal at all costs.

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    1. Obama was a chump. President Trump is not.

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    2. When Kimchi started talking like he was going to walk, I thought Trump handled it brilliantly by calling off the summit. In no time the summit was on track again. Trump knows what he's doing.

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    3. Yes, Cube. He's a real estate developer from Queens...he knows when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. We did rather well electing him, didn't we?

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    4. We done good. (Pardon my bad English)

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  4. Excellent King point -- thanks for that.

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    1. One style grinds on for years. The other gets done quickly.

      Treaties will have to be ratified by the US Senate, but that won't come until the denuclearization process is verified and irreversible.

      Expect the Dems to howl about human rights, but these things need to be taken in order. First, avert a nuclear holocaust.

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  5. Fascinating analysis, LL!

    The ties to Iran, and their consequences, should be obvious when you think about it, but few people stop and take the time to do that.

    Thanks for doing it for those of that that have the forest/trees syndrome.....

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    1. Iran wants a solution. They just don't know how to get what they want. The sneaking, underhanded Obama felt right to them, but once the light shined on the roaches, they scuttled for cover. There will be a way forward and it will be a way where nobody (Iran, the Arab States, Israel, USA and even Russia) get precisely what they want - but it will be good enough.

      The progs don't understand that China, North Korea, Iran, etc. are more comfortable communicating with a strong American leader who keeps his promises than they would ever be with a cur. Obama (a ladyboy of sorts) gave curs a bad name.

      Now we have a new world where the Norks want to have cars, TV's, condos, food, clean water, etc. like China, Vietnam, Singapore, etc. And Iran is the only pariah state on the planet with everyone looking at THEM. The paradigm shifted thanks to America electing President Trump.

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  6. A little late with this comment - I remember reading Trump's book, Art of the Deal, many years ago right after it was published. In the chapter about dealing with Lawyers, he states that since lawyers can only screw things up, the only way to utilize them in making a deal is to have the principles get together by themselves and agree on the principles and form the deal should take. Only then do you get the staff pukes involved to hammer out the details - but you give them no room to be creative in what the deal is. Sounds like a great description of how the NoKo situation has been handled, doesn't it? It's an approach that's been working for Trump for a long time! (oh, yeah, he also mentioned the only chance of getting a good deal is to be willing to walk away - negotiating principle Number One!)

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    1. Kim read his book. He knew what to expect. He also knew that President Trump dedicated himself to win-win deals.

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