sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

The Anaconda

An anaconda (much like all constrictor snakes), kills its victim by squeezing them to death. During the American Civil War/War Between the States/War of Northern Aggression, President Lincoln adopted "The Anaconda Plan" wherein a naval blockade of Southern ports kept war material from being exchanged for cotton.

The Anaconda concept is being played out in North Korea and it's about to be installed around Iran. Call it what it is: war by other means.

The Al-Houthi movement, a proxy for Iran, announced a temporary halt to attacks on shipping in raw hope that Saudi Arabia would open the Bab el Mandeb waterway (and access to the Suez Canal) to ships - that contain Iranian oil. 

 On 31 July, the chief of the Houthi Supreme Political Committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, announced, 
"We declare our initiative to halt naval military operations for a specific period and it could be extended and include all battle fronts on the ground if this move is reciprocated by the leadership of the coalition," according to Saba news agency. 
The Houthi defense ministry announced the suspension was for two weeks, subject to extension based on reciprocity by the Saudi-led coalition.

The Saudi response has not yet been reported.

The specific responses the Houthis want are the Saudi government’s agreement to end the ban on oil tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the coalition to halt the offensive against Hodeidah.

This is the first time that economic pressure has forced the Houthis to make a tactical concession.  

The Saudis and maritime shipping authorities said the ban would remain until the safety of Strait transits could be assured. Al-Houthi’s statement provides no guarantee of prolonged safety and implies just the opposite -- that the safety of shipping in the Strait and the southern Red Sea is subject to Houthi decisions.

The Saudi-led coalition might open discussions with the Houthis, but the terms they offered are likely to be rejected.

Iran is concerned that they may have gone too far, as the world's only true pariah state remaining on the map. President Trump offered a meeting with Iranian leadership, that was completely rejected, as they are keeping up their "death to America" policy. 

The Saudis, and the Arab World are slowly uniting against the Persians and sanctions are about to be renewed with all of their implications as the anaconda squeezes around Iran. Don't look for ships containing Iranian oil to be transiting the Suez Canal anytime soon.




12 comments:

  1. Wait a sec.....that strait is on the Wast side of Saudi. Iran is way over to the East. How in the Hell are they getting their crude to the Mediterranean so they can sneak it down through the Suez, and out into the Gulf of Aden?

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  2. Dumb question from a landlubber. How does Saudi Arabia control the Bab el Mandeb waterway? It appears to be well South of their territory.

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    1. They have significant influence in the Red Sea, but this is how it works. The Saudis say it's closed and the insurance companies refuse to insure any ship sailing in those waters. It's not a military blockade, but it has the same force in practice.

      Iran doesn't have a fleet of its own tankers.

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  3. I am glad it is the Saudis and not us doing it.
    Thanks for the report and observations.

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    Replies
    1. They have a bigger problem with Iran than we do.

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  4. And if that doesn't work, there is always weaponry...

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    1. Yes, there's that threat, but it's unlikely that we'll see the 'closure' become a military closure. The Saudis have increased their production to lower the price at the pumps. Their reserves don't match those of the US/Canada, BUT, their capacity to pump means that they set the price of oil to a very great extent. And when the price of oil is reduced, Iran suffers As does Russia.

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  5. I'm still trying to figure out how the Iranian "swarm" is supposed to tie up the Persian Gulf for more than, say, 10 minutes?

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    Replies
    1. Insurance rates.

      The Saudis have the capacity to pump from east or west coasts.

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  6. I'm not on board with our kid gloves treatment of Iran. The Donald thinks he is putting the squeeze on these assholes, but to me it looks like a girly man squeeze.

    We need to put a he-man squeeze on these Iranian dickheads. A naval blockade (yes, an act of war), those asswipes can't do a thing about it. What, send their little PT boats out to confront some U.S. destroyers or an aircraft carrier group?

    Time to take the gloves off with these idiots. If they want to chant 'death to America', I say we respond to that existential threat of theirs. Regime change would be almost instant. Maybe invite the eldest son of the Shah back, give him his dad's palaces back. You know, go back to the good ol' days, when Iran was on our side. Sorta.

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    Replies
    1. I think that you'll get your way.

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  7. Anaconda! Here's Snake, by the Fairies:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjpwrt-q4W0

    Jaunty crew, the Fairies.

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