sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

China - In the News

Please feel free to differ when it comes to the commentary that you read here. It's a blend of what's in the press in Asia and my personal experiences with the Chinese in the People's Republic up to and including Politburo members, in Hong Kong and my experience working directly with the Public Security Police, etc. It doesn't mean that I'm right. Only that I have had enough exposure to form opinions.

1. China is inherently unstable. If the People's Liberation Army wasn't there to keep the place in line, Western China (Muslim); Shanghai; and Guanzhou (was Canton) in Southern China would leave the People's Republic TODAY. None of those areas appreciate Beijing, and all feel that they would be better off on their own. I leave it to you to decide whether they would be or not, but in my opinion capitalism and more personal freedom is always better than communism and less personal freedom. Add Hong Kong into the mix and you have a festering wound created by "one country, two systems". 

2. Chinese people as a cultural group are inherently capitalistic. They just are. There are a million examples of this in their nature that can be seen in the West. They're industrious and smart and work toward personal goals which revolve around, (a) make money, (b) get married to a Chinese lady and have children, (c) build a monument to yourself. 

3. Chinese dysfunction that resulted from the one-child policy created an unnatural male/female imbalance that conflicts with "b" above and generates huge social pressure. The Floating Population (homeless Chinese in mainland China) consists of about 200 million Chinese people and they create social friction and add to a lack of harmony in Big China.

President-for-Life Xi has declared a 'new' Long March
with the USA in the crosshairs.
4. The Chinese milked the West eight ways from Sunday in trade, in tech transfer, and it allowed for this to become a "Chinese Century". Fools like Slow Joe Biden spout that China is not competition to the US. It's goofs like him that created the situation that we find ourselves in. The unexpected arrival of President Trump and his demand for 'fair trade' upset the apple cart. Fair trade in China means trade that benefits China. 

Hong Kong

One quarter of all the citizens of Hong Kong turned out to protest the government. Those are people who took to the street, and that number doesn't reflect the OVERWHELMING dissatisfaction of Communist China absorbing Hong Kong like a malicious amoeba. Hong Kong flies the Hong Kong flag, not the flag of the People's Republic of China.

If the protest was in the US you'd have seen 81 million people out on the street (proportionate to population). That's a BIG problem to Beijing and they have to figure out how to crush it and at the same time keep Hong Kong and its money intact. Sending the People's Liberation Army in to kill people won't work when you're talking about millions of people. I'm not saying that the oligarchs who run the PRC are squeamish. They're not. But they're building this massive belt road project on the pretense that they are not the bloodthirsty killers of the Cultural Revolution. Slaughtering several million people in Hong Kong would not give the world a warm and fuzzy feeling.

China and North Korea

North Korea has always been a Chinese satrap. Sometimes the Norks forget who calls the shots. This week, Chinese President Xi will make his first state visit to North Korea. On 17 June, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published an announcement. 
“At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and president of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the DPRK from June 20 to 21.”
The visit will be the first by a Chinese President to North Korea in 14 years. Hu Jintao was the last Chinese President to visit, in 2005. His host was Kim Chong-il. As a Vice President, Xi visited Pyongyang in 2008.

Xi Jinping accepted Kim Jong Un’s invitation during Kim’s visit to China in March 2018 to try to thaw relations with China. In accepting the invitation, Xi said he would visit at a convenient time.

Preparations for this visit explain North Korea’s relative lack of attention to South Korea and the US in the past few months. President Xi’s visit will complete the rehabilitation of North Korea as a partner of China under Kim Jong Un’s tenure. It also implies that the Chinese communists have accepted North Korea’s dynastic form of socialism. 

China appears to be intervening to prevent the return of instability on the Korean peninsula. Kim Jong Un’s deadline for terminating his peace offensive on 31 December, influenced the Chinese decision to intervene. The Chinese support North Korean denuclearization for their own reasons, which include prosperity and stability. They oppose a return to a campaign of provocations and increased tension with the US and its Allies.

What has China demanded from Kim in return for President Xi’s visit? Likely it is a commitment to maintain the suspension of long-range ballistic missile tests and nuclear tests, especially while China grapples with the US in the trade war, on cyber security issues, freedom of navigation and marketing 5G technology. 

In late May, President Xi said China “is now embarking on a new Long March and we must start all over again.” He blames his 'friend', President Trump for the need to reset. That declaration implies a long campaign of struggle, mainly with the US. The Chinese strategists cannot afford to be distracted by crises in Korea, in Hong Kong or with Taiwan. President Xi will advise Kim to behave, and China will promise to work to get sanctions lifted.

29 comments:

  1. Does Gordon Chang know what he's talking about?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I think that he’s a sharp guy who sees what we’re all seeing.

      Delete
  2. It's getting worse as women-less men have to search outside China for brides.

    Very interesting times are ahead.

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    Replies
    1. Some Chinese are finding brides in Indochina and the Subcontinent, diluting their Han blood. It bodes I’ll for the long term health of the pure blood line.

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    2. "pure blood line"

      It might be the case that increased genetic diversity among the Han would not be the worst thing. (Though mean IQ will probably decrease slightly.) It occurs to me that if science fictional gene-targeted disease (bioengineered weapons, that is) warfare becomes A THING the Han are highly vulnerable. Not as much as persons named Cohen (or Cohn or Kahn or Kahane, etc), especially if mitochondrial markers are somehow targeted, but still....

      Incidentally, for those who don't pay much attention to Asian modes of thought, northern Asians (i.e. Chinese, Japanese and Koreans) look down on Southeast Asians and South Asians. Much as "wogs begin at Calais" most Chinese would assert that "wogs begin at the Vietnamese border" but some would even assert that "wogs begin at the border of [the Chinese province of] Guangdong. (But it's okay, the Cantonese speakers despise us Mandarin speakers right back, and twice as hard.) The point of all that is that to the typical Han, marrying a Thai or Vietnamese or God forbid a Filipina, is a real mark of desperation. As to attitudes regarding brides from the Subcontinent, the most positive reaction would be something like "Well, at least he didn't marry an African...."

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    3. The issue with having a non-Han wife is that now has made a hard limit to how high the man can rise within any organization. The top are still limiting the top to only 100% Han.

      Thus a huge disgruntled middle, lower-upper and middle-upper class population with no ability to rise.

      Gonna be real interesting.

      There are already murders and bride stealing amongst the 100% Han over purebred women. And it's only going to get worse.

      hehehehehehehehehe

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    4. I wonder how long it took the CCP to realize that the fruits of One Child weren't actually what "Han Solo" meant?

      -Kle.

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  3. I don't have anything like your credentials, LL (or really any credentials at all),
    but my read on China is essentially exactly the same - it's not a nation, it's 5
    or 6 nations held precariously together by the Iron Fist and Orwellian Terror.

    Given half a chance, the place would disintegrate, and the Chinese people and the
    RoW would be the better for it, at least in the long run.

    -Kle.

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    Replies
    1. My credentials, such as they are, consist of being an observer.

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    2. Your observations have been much closer than mine, though.
      -Kle.

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  4. In all communist countries the military keeps society under the thumbs of the power elite.....until they don't. Eventually the system collapses. It did in the USSR with it's satellite states following. China under Mao worked the same way. After Maos death his successors wisely relaxed their grip a bit and China flourished (with the help of copious cheating). But there always comes a point where the amount of freedom allowed is less than what the people want but more than what the power brokers like. When that point is reached conflict becomes inevitable. The problem for the people in China and Hong Kong is they were long ago disarmed....by Mao on the mainland and the British in Hong Kong. So when it comes to 'go' time the people have few options. And those in power can operate with impunity. If necessary they will kill protesters wholesale.....but that is rarely necessary. A few hundred bodies is usually enough to take the fight out of unarmed societies. The commie left here in America are working feverishly to disarm us so they can enjoy the same advantage.

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    Replies
    1. The Second Amendment is our bulwark against tyranny. Without it, progs should expect revolution.

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    2. The progs are stupid enough that they may provoke a revolution or at least an ( un ) civil war.

      Thanks for the post.
      Paul L. Quandt

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  5. What happens in China has minimal impact on my personal life and I have no influence on them, so why worry? The real impact can come if the powers in charge decided a war will be a useful distraction to keep the masses under control. That sucks all of us into a mess and I have military age grand children.

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    Replies
    1. I 2nd that, with the proviso "sons."

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    2. President Trump doesn’t believe in getting us involved in pointless wars. He’s a great president. Imagine if Hillary won?

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    3. The reason to worry is because the PRC is trying to redefine "China" as "Earth", at which point it becomes your grandkids' problem.

      Seems like fighting them while they're weak is better than after they're strong. In the past would have been better, at this point.

      Of course, if they disintegrate on their own, that's far, far better.
      -Kle.

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  6. As I have written time and time again, we are going to have to fight the PRC, so sooner is better than later.

    Paul


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    Replies
    1. Let the people of China take back their sovereignty. Better than the US fighting another land war in Asia.

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  7. The whole area is a powder keg, balancing on the head of a pin, being rocked by earthquakes from all directions. How long China can keep that balance, no one knows, much less them...

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  8. So, does the recent activity in and around China suggest that Chinese leadership believes there will be another 5.5 years of Trump, rather than 1.5 years? It would seem to me that if the PRC projects that an utterly unprincipled traitorous sellout (in the mold of HRC) or an America-hating kneeler-to-tyrants (like BHO) to assume the presidency in Jan 2021 they'd just wait out the 18 months.

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  9. Everywhere you turn people are rising up against their overlords, or at least beginning to. Where will end? Good question.

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  11. "If the People's Liberation Army wasn't there to keep the place in line, Western China, Shanghai, and Guanzhou in Southern China would leave the People's Republic TODAY."

    Not to mention Tibet.

    ReplyDelete

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