sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Election Predictions - one week out

This is my last blog posting for about ten days - which will carry through the 2012 Election on November 6. It's only fitting and proper for me to predict the outcome of the election. This way you can shake your heads at my amazing ability to see into the future or alternately to use me as the butt of political jokes.


ROMNEY - 320 Electoral Votes


  • The Texas Republic - They're tired of the ObamaNation and can be counted on to do the right thing. The Texas economy has done well despite Obama, primarily based on continued oil revenues, but they want more than the sort of hope and change that Obama promised and didn't deliver.
  • Florida - The state is trending Republican and I think that voter enthusiasm will put Romney over the top.
  • Pennsylvania - Outside of the urban hell holes, the state is solid red. There isn't the sort of ObamaMania that existed in 2008 and I think it will be a Romney win.
  • Ohio - In much the same way as Pennsylvania, the Obama machine will twist arms to get voters out, but I don't think that it will be enough.
  • Michigan - The Democrats thought that it was a locked up state for them, but I think that it will go to Governor Romney.
  • West Virginia - A state where 40% of the Democratic Party primary vote went to a convicted felon doing time in prison over Pres. Obama can be relied on to vote for Gov. Romney
  • The Southern States - Georgia, North and South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi have always been foregone conclusions in my mind for the Republican Party.
  • The Rocky Mountain States - Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana - and Colorado (though close) will go to Governor Romney.
  • The Dakotas - North Dakota and South Dakota look solid for the Republicans.
  • The Midwest - Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, and Nebraska will be Republican victories.
  • Alaska - Reliably Republican.
  • Arizona - Mixed liberal and conservative populations but I think that they'll go to Governor Romney.
  • Virginia - Navy state, will wither under the cuts form another Obama term. Even though the population is divided between conservatives and liberals, I think that Romney will win.
  • Wisconsin - I think that the state will go Republican based on recent elections and turn-out there.
  • Nevada - In Las Vegas a lot of liberals can't vote because they're convicted felons (true, not a joke) but if they could vote, it would be for Obama. I think that the conservative north and the pockets of conservatives in the south will carry the day for Romney.
  • New Hampshire - I have to rely on polling for this call, but I suspect that it will go to Governor Romney.
It's a safe bet that the Republican Party will retain control of the House of Representatives. I suspect that the Senate will remain close with only an outside possibility of the Democratic Party losing control. Though it might end up 50/50 with Vice President Paul Ryan casting the deciding vote.



OBAMA - 218 Electoral Votes


  • California - The state is likely to go to Obama, but I suspect that the margin of victory will be much smaller than predicted.
  • New York - The liberal bastion will go to Obama as Jews and Muslims link arms in their love for The One.
  • Illinois - Chicago and the inner city hell will vote Democrat even though the rest of the state is red. Much like California where the urban population, dependent on ObamaCare, ObamaPhones, welfare and union sinecures will push to keep their subsidies.
  • New Jersey - As with California, New Jersey is likely to have a much closer race than anticipated. Gov. Chris Christie has begun to turn things around by using the same conservative philosophy that Gov. Romney espouses. Will people want that or will they vote on the basis of race and hand-outs? It remains to be seen.
  • Washington - Usually goes Democratic. I'm not sure why. They just do.
  • Washington DC - None of the people who vote in the district, live in the district (with the exception of a few of the richest who have townhomes in Georgetown). It's a lock for Obama.
  • Massachusetts - Even though it's home to Governor Romney and Senator Scott Brown was elected to the Teddy Kennedy seat in the Senate, it's more likely to go to Obama. It's a liberal state that is known to flip-flop when conditions the liberals put in place create dire emergencies.
  • Minnesota - Home to Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern (the only state that didn't go to Ronald Reagan in '84) and Senator Franken, former star of Saturday Night Live. I don't understand why the state has that lunatic liberal bent, but it does.
  • Connecticut - Could go either way but I'm guessing that they'll stick to their liberal roots. 
  • Oregon - Could go either way. The state is generally liberal but there have been signs of cracks in the stolid liberal vermeer. I'm guessing that they'll want Obama to keep it up for another four years.
  • New Mexico - The state is a lot like California, home to liberal fruits and nuts combined with a very large dependent (welfare) population, they usually vote somebody else's pocketbook, which is to say, the Obama/Chicago way.
  • Rhode Island and Delaware - Together they make up the land mass of a very small state. Home to crazy Slow Joe Biden, they are solidly backing Obama and money from other states to fuel their recovery.
  • Vermont - As with other states who seem enthralled with liberalism and 'the progressive agenda', I think that they'll go with Obama and their beloved Democratic Party.
  • Hawaii - Vastly dependent on government hand-outs, and a solid welfare culture that resents tourists but embraces their money. It's home to Obama (maybe) and they'll hope that he keeps pushing them money from the "Lower 48".
  • Maryland - Home of vast government largess under the ObamaNation has prospered with the trillions in borrowed spending. I'm guessing that they don't have the sense to vote Obama out.
  • Maine - Liberal bastion will do as anticipated.


The nation is sharply divided on what our future should look like. My predictions may be overly optimistic base on my hopes that the matter will be decided on the side of a free market, less government and a halt to collectivism and the advance of socialism.

And to all of the Hollywood types who have threatened to leave if Governor Romney wins, please start packing now.

Karl Rove - UPDATE
My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

7 comments:

  1. I sincerely hope you're right. I have some hope that the last two campaign ads BO put out may backfire - for a few folks anyway.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought that I'd make the call - but no guarantee that I'm right.

      Delete
  2. Wisconsin - I think that the state will go Republican based on recent elections and turn-out there.

    I agree. I grew up there and went to college in Madison. I know their liberal philosophy. Madison will forever vote liberal, but the rest of the state will prevail.

    The problem with Minnesota is the DFL party and its liberal legacy. Eric Severeid and the Scandinavia disease. They still produce attractive blondes though.

    Enjoy your "time off"!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The attractive blondes can counterbalance all prejudice I have against progressivism.

      where was I?

      Oh, yes, thanks for the political insight.

      Delete
  3. Hope you're right. And travel safe...

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think you have the outcome right, but I don't think it's going to be that close.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm not sayin' Romney will win New Jersey - but it will be closer than people think. If you tightened up the voter ID rules...it may even be tighter. I'm gonna say 53-47 Romney in the general...

    ReplyDelete

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