sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Is A Second Korean War Looming?

Kim Jong Un
-the fat little "Dear Leader"
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or "North Korea" has a new boy king, Kim Jong Un, who took up the mantle of "Dear Leader" at the behest of the North Korean generals who really run the country. As with all tin pot dictatorships, the people are starving to death while the leadership builds a nuclear arsenal and mobilizes for war.
Predictably, North Korea claims that its nuclear program is a response to U.S. hostility that dates back to the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the Korean Peninsula still technically in a state of war.
Kim Jong Un (Dear Leader) announced to the world that he intends to cancel the armistice agreement on March 11. "We aim to launch surgical strikes at any time and any target without being bounded by the armistice accord and advance our long-cherished wish for national unification," the statement said, according to Fox News.

Because of treaty obligations, the US would be bound to defend the Republic of Korea (ROK) or South Korea from their bellicose cousins to the North. 

The North Koreans are tied to China economically such that if China decided to stop North Korean adventurism, all that they'd need to do is stop shipping them free food and the DPRK would wither up and die. Maybe they'd fire off their nukes as a last great act of defiance?

The North Koreans have been torpedoing and sinking South Korean Navy ships and engaging in what the fat little boy king, Kim Jong Un, referred to as "surgical strikes" for a long time. They will open up with artillery on a South Korean city across the border or do any one of a number of odious things without provocation because they are literally starving. It always comes down to a national choice between guns and butter and since the North Koreans can't eat their bullets and barbed wire, they starve.

What's new this time? 

Crosseye'd Mahmood Ahmadinejad,
Iran's answer to Kim Jong Un
Nothing really. The DPRK doesn't want to be ignored and for the most part nobody cares about them. Their military has degraded technically and the only big stick that they have in their hands is a developed nuclear capability. They've exported that capability as much as they've been able to in exchange for hard currency, but there are limits to the number of rogue states, such as Iran, who will deal with them.

Kim Jong Un's generals are taking a page from the Iranian playbook in a sense. Iran threatens Israel and builds atomic bombs to bully a region in the same way as the North Koreans do.

The DPRK understands that the role of the US in South Korea is to keep the ROK from going north and embroiling the peninsula in another war with China. So they feel comfortable running a stick up and down the bars of the lion's cage, comfortable that the door is securely locked.

Update - Today, Thursday, March 7, 2013 the Fox News headline is "North Korea vows Nuclear Attack on the US, ad UN Prepares Vote on Sanctions".  Which begs the question of what the US should do? We can nuke them from orbit without the danger of a paper cut. I'm not suggesting that we do that -- but it does open interesting options.

11 comments:

  1. I imagine Obama will be thrilled. He can sit with the fleet docked and point to the sequester and ask, "does it hurt now?"

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    1. Obama has only one thing on his mind - taking back the House of Representatives in 2014 so that he can ram EVERYTHING THAT HE WANTS TO down the throats of the American people to fundamentally transform America into Amerika.

      If there was a crisis in Korea, we're likely to have SECDEF Hagel dithering without knowing what to do and Obama holed up, loaded on cocaine with JayZ. That's where we are as a nation and there's precedent to suggest that the scenario holds water.

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  2. LL- can't disagree with either the post or the comment to Opus. Bottom line we'll have a LOT of folks hung out to dry... And nobody will answer the 0300 phone call...

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  3. Kim Jong Boom Boom got his job by default, when his big brother screwed up. Is he now expected to give orders that might mean something, or is there a conclave of generals who take car of that.

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    1. I think that the chubby little boy is the figure head and the generals do all of the thinking for him. Part of me feels sorry for the poor little chump.

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  4. I heard that Kim Jong Un's wife, Comrade Ri Sol Ju, had a baby in December. I wonder which general can lay claim to fatherhood? It's widely held that either General O Kuk-ryol or Comrade General Hyon Chol-hae is Kim Jong Un's biological father. Others, more cynical than, I claim that Kim Jong Un's father is his uncle (Aunt's husband), Jang Sung-teak.

    There is a tradition of the generals 'getting there' before Dear Leader.

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    1. I think that the little wretch looks a lot like the former dear leader. Same weak chin, Downs Syndrome eyes, fondness for food unavailable to the masses. Then again, he also looks a lot like Jang Sung-teak too. But in that environment, who would order a blood test that couldn't be faked. The real question is likely to remain until somebody cracks open his tomb in the future when most of the country has been turned into a sea of radioactive glass.

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  5. LL,

    One quick thought. NK has nukes. NK has a system that can lob those nukes over the border. If memory serves, we have roughly 35,000 troops in SK. Also, one cannot negotiate with madmen and ideological fanatics. Hell, just look at our leaders.

    History shows ingrediants like above mix and become volatile to say the least. Not a good prescription for peace I would say.

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    1. The DPRK generals have power by running an army that exists without actual war. Once the war begins and they lose their armies, the house of cards falls. China won't support them in a war and is just as likely to invade from the north simply to put an end to DPRK adventurism. They have a weak hand. Lobbing the first nuke is an end to the perks that make being a general a good job: medals earned and unearned, lackeys to open the car door, yachts, limos, pussy (including imported Russians) , whiskey & power.

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