sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Monday, July 31, 2017

Manic Monday


Six Months in Office

Yes, I too cringe at a lot that comes out of the White House. You know that Scaramucci was told to blaggard the other staff. Whether or not Trump approves of the filthy language that he used to describe HIS staff is something that I can't speak to. Likely it was because Mooch still has his job. The President likes that New York in-your-face sort of approach that rubs a lot of people including me, the wrong way.

I think that General Kelly is an excellent choice for Chief of Staff because the whole operation seemed to need tightening up. 

And when I get a little critical of style, I have to back off and say that I agree with what the President is doing. Yes, style notwithstanding. I agree with his approach to allowing the military to run the wars, and repealing 18 old federal regulations for every new one. I agree to the hiring freeze and the attempt to shrink the size of the government. I agree with his efforts in the Middle East (a perennial can of worms).

We didn't have a choice. It had to be Trump. Those of you who have followed this blog understand my thoughts on the matter. The corrupt, elite, smug, nasty, lying mainstream media anointed JEB! to be the Republican nominee. What a train wreck that would have been. None of the other Republican candidates were (more) ready for prime time than Donald Trump. They memorized talking points and Trump openly mocked them because they were unable to deviate while he extemporized. Their handlers went insane and Trump ran his campaign on a shoestring, with promises to LOCK HER UP,  REPEAL and REPLACE, and BUILD THAT WALL.  Will he be able to do those things? He has 3 1/2 more years with a Republican majority legislature - many of whom don't like him.

Hillary Clinton would have been a disaster of Biblical proportions on the heels of 8 disastrous years of ObamaNation.

The corrupt, elite, nasty, smug, lying mainstream media continues its war against the President and that may boomerang on them. The public knows all parties for who they are, and the media has no interest in making America great again.

So it's President Trump, flaws and all. MAGA, I hope. 

The Evolving Situation in North Korea

On 29 July, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that “the second test-fire of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-14 was successfully carried out on the night of 28 July, Juche 106 (2017), under the supervision of Kim Jong Un Chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army.”

“He (Dear Leader), who is always bringing about ceaseless miracles and victories, baffling imagination of the world people with his rare military wisdom, great guts and stratagem, set forth the militant task for the rocket research field to conduct another test-fire simulating the maximum range of Hwasong-14 at an early date to prove once again the reliability of the whole rocket-system.”

The US Defense Department said the latest missile was launched at 23:41 (15:41 GMT) from an arms plant in Chagang/Jagang Province. The US accepted the North Korean assertion that the ICBM flew for just over 47 minutes and reached an altitude of 3,724km (2,300 miles). It splashed down in the Sea of Japan about 1,000 kms down range. As usual, North Korea did not announce a closure area or take any other precautions.

Various missile experts reported that this was a second ICBM launch. They estimated mathematically that in a standard ICBM trajectory the missile could reach Chicago or Denver. One analyst said it could reach New York. 

The Norks are demonstrating the missile’s mobility. The road infrastructure in Chagang/Jagang is not well developed, but Chagang is a key part of North Korea’s wartime industrial rear area. It, and the three other provinces that border China, features multiple underground and above ground military, heavy industrial plants. 

North Korea’s rear area military and industrial logistic system is railroad-based. The spur that runs from the coastal mainline northeast to Kanggye and then west to the China border serves the many military industrial cities along the right-of-way in Chagang/Jagang. 

As with the 4 July launch, the launch site was at a military industrial plant, which has concrete pads capable of supporting a missile launch. The North Korean railway system serves the military plants at both locations. It is likely that the system is rail and road mobile. It also is likely that North Korea has more than one assembly site from which it can deploy and launch the missile. 

One implication of the second launch site is that North Korea built the warfighting support infrastructure as it matured the missile. That raises the hypothesis that it could build many more missiles quickly. It does not appear to be launching prototypes.

South Korean Reaction

President Moon made two changes to South Korea’s missile policy after the North Korean missile launch. First, he consulted with the US about lifting the 500 kgs (1,100lbs) warhead limit on South Korean missiles. Moon wants South Korea’s missiles to carry a one ton warhead. South Korean missiles already have the range to reach any location in North Korea.

The second change is that he ordered four more Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense systems.

The 28 July missile launch is being interpreted as North Korea’s response to South Korea’s offers of talks

Sanctions have not worked and are not likely to be applied so that they would collapse North Korea’s economy or cause an internal overthrow. China has not condemned the 28 July launch. The Foreign Ministry spokesman called for restraint and to refrain from destabilizing the situation. Expect no help from China.

Short of a general war that will go nuclear, one military option is to allow the North Koreans to have a system that they sacrificed greatly to build, but can never use because it won’t work. Assuming missile defense systems work as well as advertised, the deployment of layers of reliable missile defense systems against North Korea appear to be one solution for de-fanging North Korea’s missile threat.

21 comments:

  1. I agree with you about Trump. He's our President warts and all.

    The NORKS are a sticky wicket. Until (or unless) China helps, a missile defense system is preferable to having one of our cities nuked. There is another option, though, but Un is so paranoid, I don't know how we'd get close enough to give him the treatment he gave his brother. Of course, it wouldn't be long before they got another Dear Leader, but can anyone be more bat shit crazy than Un?

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    1. Un's father and grandfather were unhinged, but he really wants a war and they wanted to be left to their caucasian whores and single malt scotch.

      China's current play is to hold off and do nothing. That appears to be their long game. They feel that there's a benefit to them even if a nuclear exchange takes place and North Korea is pounded flat. The prevailing wind takes the fallout away from China...

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  2. And when I get a little critical of style, I have to back off and say that I agree with what the President is doing. Like you say, when I can see what he has actually done, I like what I'm seeing.

    Except. Except for one thing that bothers me. He's doing virtually all of it by executive orders. The media is full of the meme that this congress has passed less legislation than any (as if more laws is a good thing), but some of these things really need to be repealed or changed by law. Structurally. So that the next Evil Party president doesn't come in an undo it all by stroke of the pen.

    Regulations.gov says that in the last 90 days, 6144 new regulations were put on the book. That's pretty much the same load in 90 days as the Obama administration. Unless most of them are saying "This rescinds Regulation # XXXX", it's not a good sign.

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    1. SiGb,

      LL says and it is reported elsewhere, that Trump is doing an 18:1 reverse split on the regulations. So 6144 new ones equal 110592 less elsewhere. That is a good sign, depending of course on each one having equal impact

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    2. Yes, the executive actions in place of legislation is disturbing now as it was with Barack. Congress is impotent, the Republicans have enough cowards that it appears that the place is in deadlock even with majorities in both houses.

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    3. I think the EO bit requires further scrutiny. If the EO is rescinding an EO of the previous occupant of the White House, then it is not the same as the previous EO in deviancy.

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  3. LL,

    When you say that Moon ordered 4 more THAAD systems, as in ROK paid us top dollar for THAAD or he ordered us to put them in for his benefit. My response would be COST plus and the plus would be hefty.



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    1. The ROK's are buying them. Moon thought that if he offered Un the "moon" that the Boy King would accept rapprochement. Un will only accept total surrender, and Moon, though a pacifist, doesn't want to be overrun by the Norks. It's been an interesting journey for Moon so far.

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  4. President Trump's style is just that, his style. I'm not a fanboy but applaud his results. Example.

    Article in Real Clear Politics, "The Desperation of Our Diplomats" by Roger Cohen, New York Times.

    They may be starting to learn they are employees, not entitled members of a private club, and are very expendable.

    Of course hell will freeze over before the NYT says anything positive about President Trump.

    His shaking up of the civil service has long been overdue, IMO.

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    1. State Department Foreign Service Officers are referred to as FSO's. Some cynics suggest that means 'faggot serving overseas'. And yes, they treat their country club lifestyle as an entitlement. I agree that this shake up has been long in coming. I sincerely hope that Rex Tillerson stays as SECSTATE.

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  5. President Trump hired Scaramucci, a foul-mouthed bully. I considered it a "New York Thing. 10 days after he was brought on as Comms Director, he was fired. I'm not surprised. He embarrassed the Office of the President. I would never have hired him in the first place. But the damage was done and now it's history. He can go back to Wall Street and make a living screwing people over.

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  6. LL,

    I kind of like a foul mouthed bully shaking up things in the cesspool. Even in a sewage treatment plant they have a sludge blender. and a guy to clean the "rag screen" I thinl y'all can figure those out for yourselves.

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  7. But in a waste water treatment facility the rag screen precedes the sludge blender. In DC, they don't like to admit the presence of the target items of either.

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    1. There's a lot of sludge to be blended in DC.

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    2. LL,

      The sludge in DC has to be uprooted and eradicated, in the waste water plant ( of college employment days) we pumped into a drying bed to be shoveled later, the criminals in DC need to be prosecuted, persecuted and perp-walked. It sends a message to their fellow perps, to the American people that Trump is for real is the clean the swamp business and tells the American people what kind of shysters they elected. After that realization, more folks will be aware and, at least a few will pay more attention. As Mandela said that once he was aware of the injustice it became intolerable.

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    3. I think that's why President Trump was elected. The injustices, heaped for years on the backs of the people, became odious and intolerable. Our 'betters' openly called us "deplorable". The corrupt, nasty, elite, smug, lying mainstream media which lives in the DC Beltway and in New York City considered anyone who didn't live in those exalted areas to be deplorable, agreed with the Clintons.

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  8. Mooch is gone... :-) Re neutering NK, I'm not sure we could do that if the left gets back in power...

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    1. It has to happen during the Trump Administration or we may be retaliating for a nuclear weapons strike on American soil -- even Barack or Hillary would do that.

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  9. The Mooch is gone! Long live Melania!

    Seriously, that was a weird blip on the radar...

    MAGA

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    1. A very weird blip. And I'm glad that the mooch blip vanished and Melania remained to MAGA.

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  10. When you say that Moon ordered 4 more THAAD systems, as in ROK paid us top dollar for THAAD or he ordered us to put them in for his benefit. My response would be COST plus and the plus would be hefty.


    แตกใน xxx

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