sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Thursday, November 14, 2019

What If?

Assumption: What if Hitler had let his Generals run World War 2? Who would have won?



Opinion: The Germans 

When Germany invaded Poland (causing Great Britain and France to declare war on Germany), Russia (later an ally of Great Britain and France) also invaded Poland from the east, sixteen days after the Germans did. Great Britain and France did not physically retaliate against Germany or Russia for the Polish invasion. Peace 'in our time' was possible.

The German General Staff plan to invade France estimated a loss of 500,000 German troops, and none of the generals liked the plan. None of them saw the war in the West going the way that it went and France crumbling like a burning paper tiger. The notion of a land war with the two strongest nations in the world with what then were second class (German) tanks and parity in aircraft and a vastly weaker navy made no sense, so the generals would have waited, looking for an opportunity, and so would the British and the French and that would have been that.

There would have been possible raids on Romania and its oil fields that could have led to a full scale invasion but it wouldn't have likely led to a world war between superpowers. 

The Man in the High Castle (HBO Series)?
As time moved forward, Germany would have worked on their heavy water experiments, and without the urgency for the US to develop The Bomb first, they could have had the hydrogen bomb by the mid to late 1940's and the vengeance weapons to deliver them. Who can say how things would have worked out then? 

It was Hitler who pushed General von Manstein's plan Case Yellow (The invasion of the Low Countries) and forced the invasion on the General Staff. If he'd let the General Staff have their way, there wouldn't have really been a World War 2.

Your thoughts?

20 comments:

  1. Anything is possible. If Germany had wAited a year or two to start the war they would have had jet aircraft and maintained total air superiority. If the generals ran things the Luftwaffe would have probably won the Battle of Britain in the air and perhaps succeeded in conquering Britain. Lots of what ifs and maybe's.

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    1. If the Germans had waited a couple of years, had taken Romania and the oil fields, had jets as you suggest, had submarines running hydrogen peroxide engines (quiet and didn't have to surface and had the bomb, I think that there would be a lot more German speakers in the world.

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  2. You can play hypotheticals all day and get every different answer in the book. Remember war gaming we did? How many different outcomes did we get by just changing ONE piece of the puzzle (usually fuzzing/sharpening intel)

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    1. For want of a nail they lost a shoe, for want of a shoe, they lost a horse, etc. Yes I know. I just thought that I'd throw it out.

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  3. I'm not sure if Germany would have won, but I feel the war would have dragged on once it started.

    Would we have sacrificed Britain to keep out of a looming war? Don't know, but I don't see how we could.....

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    1. If only Germany had been able to harness the power of the Lost Ark....

      If Germany hadn't invaded Russia and if they sat it out, the Western Front would have been very different. The Russians bled and they bled the Germans. Their Great Patriotic War was a brutal slug fest.

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    2. I'm glad you mentioned the Ark.
      My answer to your question would be that God would have found some other way to confound them.
      I'm pretty sure He had to have an outcome where Israel was restored.

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    3. Of course, the Ark is in a government warehouse at Area 51, next to the pickled alien corpses and the flying saucer. We know because Hollywood assures us it is so.

      German atrocities and Japanese atrocities were committed on a grand scale with maximum cruelty. The communist purges and the Chinese Cultural Revolution were no less bloody. Pol Pot in Cambodia, and so forth. Man's inhumanity to man seems to have no boundaries.

      As you point out, there is God's plan and it deals with everything. But sometimes you just have to take things on faith that it will work out, because things can get very messy.

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  4. I agree, the German General Staff wouldn't have launched on France and a Greater Reich consisting of Germany, Austria, Czechoslovakia and much of Poland would have emerged and consolidated. And then faced off against Russia. So, in a sense a win in a world war which never went worldwide.

    But playing hypotheticals, would a German superpower have won a one front war against Russia? And would France, Great Britain and America have supported Stalin if the panzers had rolled East? Good question.

    That aside, imagine the OKW's amazement at their lightning fast victory in France. They must have felt invincible. Error.

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    1. Hubris on a grand scale after the victory in France. I can understand why they felt invincible. But it didn't work out for them.

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  5. What if Japan hadn't attacked Pearl Harbor? The political climate at the time wasn't favoring the USA getting involved in another European War. In today's terms, the Elites were for it and the Deplorables against it.

    Conventional wisdom says Japan was forced into a war because Roosevelt cut off their oil. Would we have gone to war if Japan simply took the oil in the Dutch East Indies?

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    1. I think that we would have gone to war over the Dutch East Indies and Japan knew it. Or they couldn't gamble that we would stay out of it. Then they, like the Germans, were smitten by the 'victory disease' and things worked out badly for them.

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    2. Was in a discussion about Dugout Doug at the Armistice Day dinner. The only thing we agreed upon was his dealing with postwar Japan. There he shined IMO. Later, Korea and dealing with President Truman not so much.

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    3. Yes, he was a superstar governing postwar Japan. He found something that he could do well. He was a plodding general and egomaniac during WW2, and while the invasion at Inchon was a stroke of genius, he lacked the political skill to deal with a president, since he considered himself to be The Almighty God.

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  6. European countries have no problem to be governed by Germany today. In case you wonder just look at the EU, Merkel and Germany's position. Hitler had in his book a reason for territorial expansion (for now let all the the other sick ideas be aside). If he had not followed those ideas and attacked Soviet but just convinced neighboring countries to accept German support (similar to The Warsaw Pact) and used the same integration strategy as Islam (e.g if you are with us pay no tax and eradicate those who are non-believers), Germany could have expanded and secured Europa. Then they could have looked towards east since they at that time would have superior military dominance. Plus the Japanese liked to expand west. The US had many supporters of Germany in the 30's and did not need a war against the US. The Japanese managed to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Then Germany could be an allied of the US and the East would be part of Europe where Germany ruled, just like they do today in the EU.

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    1. Sound reasoning. The Germans still won.

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    2. They work hard, work ethics. The heritage from Calvin still remain. It is part of their culture to be responsible for their own destiny. No Inshallah approach in Germany unless you are muslim and use Germans to work for you to pay the bills. And do not forget who made the Roman Empire shut down their business in Europe. The Germans know how to march and they will some day again.

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    3. At one point in my life, circa 2008, I was responsible for overseeing an activity undertaken by Germans in Germany. I arrived as a visiting inspector from the USA and the German in charge asked me if I had been to Germany before. I explained to him that my family (one branch of my immediate family) was Swiss - and yes, I knew Germany. You could see the gears turn because the Swiss are even more obsessive than the Germans.

      Following the inspection he asked me about my findings. I told him, truthfully, that the work that had been done was carried out perfectly. I found no fault. Not the slightest item out of place. It's what I always came to expect of the Germans.

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  7. What if's are always interesting topics to pursue. "If" I had been 7'2" tall and athletic, I could have started for the New York Knicks in the paint, easy. "If" I were as good looking as Fabio/Paul Newman, I could have been a movie star, piece o' cake.

    "If" Hitler had listened to anybody other than his own personal demons, there would not have been a WWII.

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    1. France was a hollow house of cards. The British were whipped by their losses in World War One. America was reluctant and far from ready. The Russian army had been worse than decimated by purges. The two military machines were Germany and Japan and they agreed to act in concert.

      I can't say that Hitler was wrong. The numbers added up. Though Hitler badly miscalculated where the US was concerned, the notion that Japan would keep America busy while he mopped up Europe and pushed the Russians to the Urals had a logic - Germany overextended, and the Japanese lost their air fleet at Midway. The rest was a battle of logistics and the US, buffered by oceans, was ready to win that one.

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