sunset from behind the wire

sunset from behind the wire

Monday, December 9, 2019

Semantics

Everyone tends to split hairs when it comes to matters of interest to them. Is 'somebody' a freedom fighter or a terrorist? Does killing people for fun and profit for political gain somehow end up with a different result than if they're doing it as part of their business plan (profit motive)?

Last Friday, President Trump announced that he will hold off on officially designating Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations while he works with the Mexican president "to deal decisively" with the issue.
"All necessary work has been completed to declare Mexican Cartels terrorist organizations," Trump tweeted Friday. "Statutorily we are ready to do so. However, at the request of a man who I like and respect, and has worked so well with us, President Andres Manuel @lopezobrador_ we will temporarily hold off this designation and step up our joint efforts to deal decisively with these vicious and ever-growing organizations! All necessary work has been completed to declare Mexican Cartels terrorist organizations. Statutorily we are ready to do so. However, at the request of a man who I like and respect, and has worked so well with us, President Andres Manuel @LopezObrador_ we will temporarily hold off this designation and step up our joint efforts to deal decisively with these vicious and ever-growing organizations!
Some call them Reapers - some call them rapers. It all depends on where the
missile enters.
President López Obrador walks a tightrope. He was elected on the platform of hands-off drug cartels, and now if he sticks to that promise, he faces a potential invasion (if only by armed drones) of sovereign Mexico. Designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations means that the US is expressing the intent to kill them wherever they are.  That would include removing some of Pres. Lopez-Obrador's most ardent donors from the gene pool. Call it retroactive birth control if it makes you feel better.

Obrador praised Trump's decision at an event Friday in his home state of Tabasco.
“I celebrate that he has taken our opinion into account,” the Mexican president said, according to The New York Times. “There has to be cooperation with respect for our sovereignties, cooperation without interventionism. And I think it was a very good decision that he took today."
The sad reality is that the cartel structures include the WHOLE of Mexico. A terrorist designation would label all of Mexico as a terrorist state, much as Iran is today, with very tough financial sanctions. And they're our largest trading partner. Sticky wicket. Technically, and maybe practically, it would bar financial institutions of doing ANY business with Mexico. And who would want to invade the place? (if you broke it, you bought it) Particularly where the dope that they move is in such high demand in the US?

Mexico will stage pageants (see Wag the Dog) in coming weeks and months to show that they are cracking down on cartels. The cartels who don't pay MEXGOV enough will be targeted by Mexican light armor and troops. They will serve to assure the USA that they're serious about curbing cartel behavior. In reality it will be business as usual.

President Trump will show the American public these pageants and will use it to assure the voting public that our largest trading partner is trying...while we keep building the wall. Politics remains what it is.
Mexico today is a financial mess. It's not getting any better no matter what the US does or doesn't do, but designating it as a Terror State would lead to a complete collapse. I know that there are a few readers who might applaud that. But you need to be careful in what you wish for. What would rise from the ashes in Mexico? What about the humanitarian result of twenty million (or more) trying to cross the US Border every WEEK. The cause and effect could be horrible.

The US has a tiger by the tail. We don't want to hold on, we don't want to let go, and shooting the tiger in the head, while satisfying, may not get us where we want to go.

21 comments:

  1. Good post LL. I had a long comment which, when I went to copy it to save, blogger ate it. I am too angry just now to try to reconstruct it, so I will just write...

    Thanks for the post.
    Paul L. Quandt

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  2. When you wrestle with pigs you get filthy, and the pig likes it.

    "Obrador better have good protection....this could go very bad for him as no amount of dog and pony show will warm-over what may be his ultimate demise at the hands of his pigsty partners.

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    1. That's possible. I don't know whether it would be an obvious assassin or whether they'd just make it look as if he died of natural causes. In any event, his successor would be made aware of what happens to people who don't serve their masters faithfully.

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    2. The thing is, anymore they don't care that it's obvious to everyone that a dbl-tap to the head being called a suicide, isn't...because there are no consequences. (in this life anyway)

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    3. Sometimes it's easier if they shuffle off this mortal coil more gently from a political perspective.

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  3. Analogy time: imagine that the Allies in WWII considered the plight of the common German as it related to getting rid of Hitler and the Wehrmacht/Luftwaffe/SS, etc.

    Rather than bomb the crap out of the civilian population (which we did), we allow Hitler to just kill a few hundred thousand Jews monthly, you know, put a quota cap on his 'Final Solution' thing he had going. Maybe let him keep France and Poland, but free Norway and the Benelux, that oughtta solve things, right? And we can then leave him in place, so that his damage will be mitigated.

    Mexico and its inhabitants (meaning all of Mexico and everyone living there) have made a deal with the devil - support the cartels thereby exempting you and your family from retribution from them for opposition/non-support. Aside from that, Mexicans on the whole hate America for what we are: prosperous, and they are not. They envy us and accordingly despise us.

    There is no way to eliminate these evil drug cartels other than to wipe them out and those who harbor them (a little Dubya speak here), and make no distinctions between them: terrorist is a terrorist, active or passive. Yes, this is and always will be a mess.

    Once the government/cartels collapse, the flow north of refugees from the chaos can be stopped forcibly by the U.S. Army/Navy/Air Force/Marines and Coast Guard. It will be hell. But we Americans will be better off in the long run without this hell hole boiling over on our southern border.

    Time to pull the trigger.

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    1. The probe within out own borders would be bloody. Do the American people have the stomach for the slaughter?

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  4. I'm not so much in favor of speeding the collapse... I just don't see any alternative to Mexico becoming Somalia, and it seems like it would be better if it happened while we are reasonably strong, and have a pro-US President in the White House.

    Imagine if the place had finally shit the bed under Obama?

    -Kle.

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    1. President Trump as a lame duck will have a lot more freedom -- in much the same way as Barack explained to Russian President Medvedev...

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  5. The Cartels have the means to fight back. Their troops on the ground are right here, within our borders. Many are citizens, or legal residents. The Cartels have access worldwide, to expertise honed by decades of warfare, from people who also hate us.

    Something along the lines of the Irish "Troubles" on steroids will be our reality.

    The plight of Latinos will be even worse. Where does their loyalty lie? Can they put their lives, and their family lives, on the line?

    With all that said, as a country we need to bite the bullet and get it done, IMO.

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    1. I don't see it as cowboys and Mexicans. Most Americans with Hispanic heritage don't identify with the cartels.

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    2. Didn't mean to imply they do. To the contrary, most of my acquaintances despise the cartels but have family in Mexico, hence vulnerable to pressure.

      I don't foresee the cartels just rolling over without striking back, hard. Hope I'm wrong.

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  6. Long overdue. It's time to secure the border and take out the cartels. Let the chips fall where they may.

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    1. I'm sure that if President Trump takes that action, the donkeys will impeach again. It's important to get Republican majorities in both houses of Congress in 2020

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    2. The chips include the economy, ours, toileting as auto parts to and from Mecicartel stop transitting the border.
      Large scale layoffs and a dem prez.

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  7. It seems to me the demand has to be addressed as well as the supply. While the market is there and lucrative, someone will find a way to fill it whether the Mexican cartels or other criminal organizations. Until this country starts letting people bear the consequences of their actions, and if that means they end up under the daisies, so be it. Until that happens, maybe it's better to deal with the devil we know then the one we don't?

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    1. The Chinese already supply the US illegal drug market with ketamine and with precursors for meth. They'd love to fulfill all of our illegal narcotics orders.

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  8. Darned if we do and darned if we don't.
    Thanks for the update, LL.

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    1. LindaG, as with many things. Ours is a consumption problem. If we could stop that, the cartels would go away.

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  9. I don't see how this ends well, is there a solution or do we attempt to mitigate worst outcomes?

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  10. Maybe a lesson from the history book can give some inspiration. They knew what to do in order to conquer in the old days.

    Alexander the Great in Afghanistan
    Leaving a Wake of Dead, Both Friend and Foe, Alexander the Great Pursued His Dream of Conquest and Empire on the Northeast Frontier.

    Todays politicians might be to soft to solve the problem?

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