Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Break-Even

The break-even price of a barrel of sweet crude oil is about $80. (high sulphur oil is less) That means if the price drops below that number, you're losing money to produce it. The price yesterday fell to about $35 per barrel with the Russians and the Saudis playing chicken. Saudi production capacity (not oil reserves) is massive.

Supply and demand sets the price and energy stocks along with the viability of drilling and exploration all pivots on profitability. A sustained price of $35 per barrel means that US companies will eventually be forced to lay off people because nobody can, or will produce oil at that price point. 

Saudi Arabia has cash reserves of about $500 billion. (oil is bought and sold in dollars).  Russia has smaller cash reserves but it has huge gold reserves and gold is fungible.

Airlines, and other massive consumers of petroleum are locking in futures contracts at a much lower rate, which might buffer them against the economic impact of coronavirus concerns. So it's not all bad news for everyone, and the price will come down at the pumps.